We did it! We made it through the fallow week! And I’m glad to say we won’t have any more of those this year. No, we are back for the final big push. 2 weeks of rugby left before we crown France Grand Slam Champions. Spoiler alert, no one’s stopping them. But it’s not all about the mighty march of Les Bleus, we’ve also got two fascinating match ups in Dublin and Rome to look forward to this weekend. The two sides that positively surprised us the most last round face off at the Aviva with intrigue around whether each of them can replicate their performances once more. Then we head to Rome to see whether England’s nightmare will keep on going, or whether they can reverse the worrying trend of their last two outings. Italy meanwhile will be as confident as they’ve ever been that they can claim the final scalp left for them in the Six Nations.
The headline is of course the showdown in Edinburgh. I said before the tournament started that this would be France’s toughest challenge. Against a side they’ve slipped up against on occasions in the past, they’ll have to battle on the road to keep the Grand Slam alive and all but secure the Championship title. Scotland are a curious one. They’ve sandwiched their rampant victory over the English with two lackluster showings against Italy in Wales. Where are they really at? And can they cope with the French flair?
So far this tournament we’ve done pretty well predicting games and betting against the spread. We’ve called 8/9 bets correctly, with a foolish bet on Wales in Round 1 our only blemish.
We’ve also not shied away from being bold, predicting Scotland to upset England and Italy to topple Ireland (1 from 2 on those, but at least we’ve not bound by consensus!).
So before we get into the picks for this week, let’s see how each team has performed against the spreads (ATS) so far:
3/3 wins ATS – Italy
2/3 wins ATS – France
1/3 wins ATS – England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland
It gives you a pretty good read of how each side has done versus expectations. Italy have shocked everyone with their competitiveness, and are unlucky not to have 2 victories at this stage. France have been excellent, and interestingly all 4 home nations have disappointed (1 good performance each aside). A Lions Tour effect? Perhaps. Not sure Wales can use that excuse though.
So, do we ride the hot hand and rock with Italy? Are France still a strong bet for this week? Who will disappoint most in Dublin? Let’s have a look.
Just a quick note, at the time of writing Italy, Scotland and France have not announced their teams. I’m not expecting any surprises that would shift my predictions below but if there are, check our X feed for updated thoughts @Gameline_Sports
Ireland v Wales – Friday 20:10 GMT – Aviva Stadium Dublin
Our Pick: Wales +25.5 (11/10)
Wales have not won in Dublin in the Six Nations since 2012, being comfortably beaten in most of those encounters. Ireland looked imperious in Twickenham two weeks ago, tearing apart a fancied England team. So why would we bet on Wales? It’s the number. 25.5 is quite a lot of points. The last two Ireland v Wales fixtures in Dublin have been 22 and 24 point victories to the home side. However that was when Ireland were at their peak, and Wales… well Wales have been this bad for a while.
Until today, everything I’ve written about this Ireland side this season has been about how they are a declining power. An aging team at the tail end of a golden generation. Last round they reminded us of what they are still capable of. However one swallow doesn’t make a summer. A lot of sides have one or two big performances per year in them. I think that was Ireland’s. I expect a performance drop off this Friday from them. How much? Probably not a lot, but I don’t think they set a new baseline against England. They’ll likely win the game with some room for comfort, however I don’t see it being the easy sledding the bookies clearly do.
Wales, let’s be honest have also been a team on decline. This must be one of the first rebuilds where a team has gone backwards every week. However last round they showed really positive signs that they’ve turned a corner. Wales were probably 10 points better than Scotland in that game and should have come away with the victory. I’ll avoid talk of refereeing here, but let’s just say Wales were very unlucky in the last 15 minutes there. Then that switch off for Darcy Graham’s 7 pointer was symbolic of a team that just doesn’t know how to win yet. The real positive though was the performance, and in particular the effect that good selection seemed to have. Sure, there was still some naivety in a couple selection decisions. Jim Botham for example made his exclusion over the first two rounds look particularly dumb. However Wales have found a balance in the pack that seems to work and a centre combination that has the talent to grow into a really capable duo. They are having their teething issues in defence, however they have shown real progress game on game.
A big part of Wales’s horrible run of form the last couple seasons is that they have had a defence so porous that you would think they play in the PREM. That doesn’t fly at international level. One might even be forgiven for thinking they didn’t have a defence coach. What a ludicrous situation that would be…
Against Scotland though, Wales’s defence was what you might expect from an international side. Even against one of the world’s most dangerous backlines. Against Ireland they’ll be tested even further, having to stop the cohesive effort of Ireland’s 15 man attack. I think they’ll front up well, and they’ve got a solid set piece now. A lot will come down to how young Dan Edwards performs at 10. However I believe this game will be more competitive than people think. Ireland have made a couple changes to their side from last round, enough that it caused the line to shift from -26.5 on announcement, and their scrum is still an area Wales will be targeting aggressively.
I would expect Ireland to win by 3 scores. But I don’t think they’ll win by the 26 points that the bookies predict.
One thing to watch with this one is the fitness of Aaron Wainwright. He’s a key man for Wales and it sounds like he may have to pull out of the game with a leg injury picked up in training. I would expect news either way on that on Friday morning.
Italy v England – Saturday 16:40 GMT – Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Our Pick: Italy +7.5 (4/5)
Are you ready? Italy are going to beat England! Imagine reading that a month ago.
I know, it’s very affirmative that statement, and at the end of the day England are still the favourites in this one. However a few weeks ago I called Italy to beat Ireland and the reasons I predicted that upset are the exact same as the reasons I’m predicting this one. (Yes, I know, Ireland won that game. But if Menoncello’s pass for Lynagh’s try had stood then I could have been right.) As I’ve written numerous times over the last few weeks, Italy are a serious outfit that are ready to win now. They have an identity, clarity, continuity, a foundation at set piece and a defence that can compete. They are not here to play well in a loss and gradually improve, they are here to win now.
Until 3 weeks ago, those are words I could have written about England. I have probably been about as low on England this tournament as anyone, however even I didn’t see their massive performance dip coming. I thought the Scotland result was predictable, but I did not see England getting beat, let alone totally outplayed, at home against Ireland. Personally if I was Borthwick, I would have made slight tweaks, but largely kept the team the same. After all, there’s a reason England won 12 games on the bounce. Borthwick’s selection this week feels impulsive and reactionary. It’s like the last 12 months never happened. England haven’t become a bad team overnight, they’ve just faced a reality check. Dropping the likes of George Ford and totally revamping the backline isn’t suddenly going to fix things. There was really a lot less broken than this selection would have suggested.
The problem is though, that Italy aren’t playing new combinations or inexperienced players. Italy will have a cohesion that England may lack, and without Ford there, do England have the know-how to clinch the win in the final 15 minutes?
I also want to highlight the Rome factor, which may sound a little unfair and be an unpopular take, but I think it matters. If you’re England, and you’ve never lost to Italy before, honestly, how pumped up would you be for Saturday? Against France or Ireland or the All Blacks, there is so much to be gained from winning. Players would be so fired up. Against Italy… you just hope you don’t lose. It’s a different mindset, and there will be an element of England wanting to respond after a couple poor showings. However the onus will be on the players to hype themselves up for the game, not the game to hype the players.
Italy on the other hand will be so emotionally charged, knowing they have a great chance to achieve something no Italian side has ever achieved.
I believe in the Italians this week. No result, either way would surprise me in this game, but I think we’ll see an upset in Rome. Getting +7.5 points against the spread on Italy is nice, particularly that protection the extra half point gives you. However if you’re feeling the upset, Italy to win is at 2/1 right now.
Scotland v France – Saturday 14:10 GMT – Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh
Our Pick: France -10.5 (10/11)
So this is a game between 1st and 2nd in the Six Nations table. However it doesn’t really feel like it. France have been awesome this tournament and no one has really been able to challenge them. At times their backs look like they’re just mucking about in the schoolyard, yet in reality they are tearing apart some of the world’s best defences, and also Wales’s. Scotland on the other hand have really disappointed.
I’m actually going to be incredibly harsh here on Scotland so I would understand if you feel I’m being unfair. For context, I predicted Scotland to win 3 games and finish 2nd in my Six Nations Preview before the tournament. So I don’t lack belief in their talent, but I want to point out one thing that I think puts a very different perspective on Scotland.
Against Wales, Scotland were not good. They played against a side that hasn’t won in 13 Six Nations games and they were outplayed for the majority of the game, losing the physical battle and failing to convert chances on numerous occasions. The Darcy Graham try was opportunistic, but also fits in the “once a year freebie” category. Even with that try, they were 4 points down with a lineout 5m out from Wales’s line with 75 minutes on the clock. Wales initially halted the Scottish maul, until Matt Fagerson entered, clearly from the side, and cleared a path for George Turner to go over for the winning try. The referees missed an obvious penalty. Right now the talk around Scotland is largely positive. That game was seen as a positive because Scotland found a way to win, and they now sit 2nd in the championship table.
Had the referees called that moment correctly however, we would be having a very different conversation. Had that been a penalty against Scotland then they likely would have lost the game and we’d be talking about how stupid it was to give away a dumb penalty like that when you’re in such a good attacking position, needing a try. The conversation would then be all about how Scotland can play well against England but cannot deliver against anyone else. The mood would be one of disappointment, and quite frankly, when you add the loss to Italy into the equation, we’d be talking about Townsend losing his job. Scotland were really poor in Cardiff and they were poor in Rome.
I haven’t lost faith in the talent, but I’ve lost faith in this Scotland side. I cannot get over how poor they’ve been when not facing England. I also cannot get over the fact that they are struggling up front to win the physical battle. Against France I fear they will be outmatched athletically, and that’s before you even consider the outrageous things that the French backs could do to them.
I don’t love the line at France -10.5, I would much rather -9.5, however sometimes you need to bet on principles. France are a team you want to bet on, even if their quality is baked into the price. Scotland right now are a team I’m selling stock on. The Murrayfield factor does give me some caution with this bet, however I’m not sure pride, emotion and effort are enough to stop this French attack. I believe we are watching something truly special, and as brutal as it feels when it’s our country’s turn to face the bludgeoning, we should appreciate that we may just be watching the greatest team of the Six Nations era. And boy are they a fun one.
Bet on France, bet on Dupont, and sit down with a bottle of claret and enjoy the rugby equivalent of the late Brigitte Bardot’s And God Created Woman.