Super Saturday is here! The most exciting day in the sporting calendar is bigger than it’s been for a long time as we have 3 teams all in with a chance to win the championship.
We kick off with a Triple Crown decider in Dublin, as the winner of that game will slot themselves into provisional pole of the Six Nations table until the final whistle blows in Paris. Italy look to follow up their historic win over England with a victory in Cardiff that would make this year their most successful championship ever. Wales have their own record to break as they’ll be chasing their first Six Nations win in 3 years, and with a realistic chance of doing it.
Then we come to the big one. The Grand Slam decider in Paris between unbeaten France and all conquering England.
Sorry, I couldn’t resist. It’s almost as though dismissing 4 games as automatic wins was a foolish thing for the English media and fans to do. I did have to consume some humble pie myself last week to be fair. In the round 4 predictions, as I’d declared previously, I wrote with absolute confidence that France would win the Grand Slam this year. Yet instead we all got a timely reminder that Grand Slams are incredibly hard to achieve and there’s a reason they are as rare as they are. One thing I’ve loved about this Six Nations is how topsy turvy it’s been. One week a team is heroic, the next they’re the biggest disappointment. The only thing that’s been predictable about this tournament is its unpredictability. Oh, and Wales losing. However to go along with the former, I think the latter may not hold this weekend.
I will note though, for all the unpredictability of this year’s championship, we’ve done a pretty good job of predicting it. Through 4 rounds we have correctly called 10 of the 12 games against the spread, including correctly predicting both Italy and Scotland’s victories over England. It’s been a pretty good return so far.
As we did a week ago, we’ll have a quick look at how each team has performed against the spread (ATS) so far this tournament:
4/4 wins ATS – Italy
2/4 wins ATS – Wales, France and Scotland
1/4 wins ATS – England and Ireland
Italy are the standout here. They’ve been the surprise package of this year’s Six Nations. Although I should note that Rassie Erasmus predicted them to finish 3rd and whilst he’s not got it right, Jonny Wilkinson deserves some credit for calling Italy to win the whole thing. Italy have been underestimated by the bookies all tournament, favoured to lose in all their games to date. This week they go to Cardiff for the first time ever as favourites. Can they keep their perfect record for Italy bettors?
Wales have roared back into form over the past two weeks. Highly unfavoured by the bookies, better selection and a massive turn around in their defence and discipline has seen them outperform expectations. But to what extent have the bookies adjusted after 2 strong showings?
Scotland have been feast or famine. Two unbelievable performances at home and two dreadful outings on the road. It sure feels like we’ll get one or the other this week in Dublin. Whilst Ireland have largely disappointed outside of that one big game at Twickenham. Perhaps selection has been the biggest factor in that department.
For France the Murrayfield expedition was a disaster. All their fears manifesting in brutal collapse, reminiscent of the French sides of yesteryear. I guess you can’t have all that flamboyance without a dose of frailty.
Then England… could things have gone worse? Actually yes. Had Wales beaten Scotland (as they should have done) then there would be a high chance England would be collecting the most objectively hilarious wooden spoon in Six Nations history. When English fans were talking of Grand Slams and finally winning the Six Nations again, it turns out that England v Wales game in Round 1 was the wooden spoon decider. Who’d have thunk it.
So, in our final betting predictions of the 2026 Six Nations, can we keep our good record going? Honestly, I actually don’t like any of these lines and think this might be a better weekend to sit out the betting and just enjoy the rugby. But we’ll give you our picks anyway.
Ireland v Scotland – Saturday 14:10 GMT – Aviva Stadium Dublin
Our Pick: Ireland -5.5 (1/1)
I’m going to go straight in with the obvious. Scotland have an awful record against Ireland and an even worse record in Dublin. Stylistically they are a terrible match. Ireland just know how to exploit Scotland’s weaknesses and they’ve dominated this fixture, unbeaten against their Celtic neighbours since 2017. You have to go back 16 years since Scotland last registered a win in the Irish capital. This is about as good a Scotland side as we’ve seen in that time though, so they’ve got as good a chance as ever. However Scotland have been poor on the road this tournament and so you’d still back the Irish to get it done.
I did however back Scotland to lose by 11 or more points last week to France, which blew up massively in my face. The difference is, I know where I went wrong last week. The argument for Scotland was fairly compelling and I did have fears going into that game that I’d called it wrong (although apparently I wasn’t smart enough to listen to them). Scotland at Murrayfield. It was the banana skin game for France. We knew that, and Scotland have the players. They have the talent to pull out these brilliant performances, which is partly why I was so harsh on them after they fell flat against Wales.
This week though, I just don’t see the argument for Scotland being as compelling. It feels like Ireland would need to underperform for Scotland to win. Partly because I don’t believe Scotland will be able to back up last week’s outstanding performance away from home.
Ireland have chopped and changed selection this tournament, bringing through some new players. However the team they’ve picked this week, as was the case against England, is the tried and tested. These are the guys who have been there, done that, and pummelled Scotland on many occasion. Like Andy Farrell, I’m backing those boys on Saturday.
Wales v Italy – Saturday 16:40 GMT – Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Our Pick: Wales +3.5 (10/11)
I am really in two minds on this. I’m feeling so much more positive about this Welsh team right now. Against Ireland and Scotland they were excellent defensively. Something I haven’t been able to write about Wales since the last World Cup. If they can repeat the defensive effort and solid set piece of the last couple rounds then they can absolutely win this game.
For Italy, they’ve been excellent all tournament. They are so legit. None of these results are flukes and none of them are because their opponents underperformed. Italy are exactly as good as their results suggest. They are ahead of Wales right now, and whilst I’m still not fully bought in on Italy’s ability to win tight games at the end, it’s definitely ahead of Wales’s. I think this will be a very tight game and I think it’ll be within one score at the end.
One of the things that I like to consider with rugby, which is pretty unpredictable and massively intangible, is the emotional element. How on it are a team going to be. The reality is that emotions are really hard to regulate and control, and to perform at an elite level you need your emotions to be in the right zone. This is often why teams can put up inspired performances one week and duds the next. It’s partly how you explain the phenomenon of home advantage.
So who will rock up with their A game this week?
Honestly, I have concerns around both. Both sides are coming off emotionally draining, but positive, performances. Wales were incredible last week with their defensive effort. Italy beat England! At the end of a tough championship I actually think both will be slightly off from 100%. However I like Wales as the home team to find that extra edge.
If I had to put a number on it, I’d say this game is 60-40 in Italy’s favour in terms of winning chances. However we’re not betting wins here, we’re betting the spread. In this scenario, give me the 3.5 points. I’m taking Wales.
France v England – Saturday 20:10 GMT – Stade de France, Paris
Our Pick: Stay away, it’s a trap! But if we had to call it, England +15.5 (4/5)
Imagine if every penny you’ve bet across your life was collected up, and instead of putting it on all the bets you have, it was equally spread across the 10 bets you’ve been most confident on. You’d probably have a pretty good return. The point is knowing when not to bet is just as important as knowing what to bet on. So many times we place bets without confidence in our pick and so often that’s where the losses come from.
I know the point of this article is to provide betting picks but I really hate this line and this game from a betting perspective. Categorically I do not want to bet against France and for England right now. Up until last week I was so high on this French team, as I have been for 5 years. However I forgot that no amount of Shaun Edwards coaching can take away the ability of the French to capitulate every once in a while. Last week was a perfect storm of Scotland putting in one of their greatest performances and France were totally unable to combat it. As the game progressed, adversity overwhelmed a team that until that moment had looked invincible.
However they are still so talented and even this week they’ve switched things up, going for unrelenting power against England with Meafou and Flament in the 2nd rows. I would be shocked if England beat this French side as I can’t really see a path to victory for them.
I do think England have now creeped into the undervalued territory though. They clearly have issues and are struggling to get back to the side that beat the All Blacks in November. They look out of sorts and out of answers. However they are still strong defensively and still have the ability to pull a performance out of the hat. For me, the fundamentals say don’t bet this. But 15.5 points is a lot. I could very easily see France being 3 scores up, game won, and then England go grab a try or two in garbage time to hit the +15.5.
For the first time this Six Nations, I am going against a core principle of rugby betting, and taking England against the spread in this one.