Here we are, at an inflection point in the season. In the PREM, 3 of the 5 games are being played at the bigger stadiums of Villa Park, Tottenham Hotspur and the Principality. The race for the top 4 is red hot and the results this weekend could have a massive impact on the trajectories of each side. Exeter and Leicester have big away games, that they really need to win. Saracens meanwhile have the hopes of their season on the line. A loss to Saints would resign them to irrelevancy in the title charge. A win, and who knows, perhaps the former dynastic club could stage a late surge to the playoffs.
In the URC, it’s less interesting this week. A slate full of firm favourites across all the fixtures. But it’s rugby. Surely they’ll be a surprise somewhere.
But before we get into this week’s picks, here’s a look at where we’re at overall. Every week we’ll be updating our record so you can see how we’re doing with our predictions. I’ll be as honest and open as possible so you know whether I’m a charlatan or whether I might know a thing or two. The one thing I would emphasise is that with betting, you have to make your own decisions. I am just providing thoughts and ideas. That being said, for a bit of fun, we’ll track our record and model a PNL tracker.
Our Betting Record
Since launching our betting previews in November 2025, we have made 41 picks against the spread across the Autumn Nations Series, Champions Cup, PREM, URC and Six Nations.
Record: 26 wins, 15 losses (63% win rate)
Had you placed £10 on every pick, you would have turned £410 into £494.09 — a profit of £84.09 and a return on investment of 20.5%.
For those who prefer a more dynamic approach, if you had started with a £100 pot and staked 10% of your pot on each bet, that pot would now stand at £188.84 — an 89% return since November.
All picks are published every Friday on Substack and @Gameline_Sports on X before kick-off.
Onto this week
Following on from last week’s games, I have made a decision. I am blacklisting the Bulls, the Sharks and the Stormers from our betting picks. I’m sorry, but I just don’t know when it comes to those teams. This year I’ve bet on or against them a total of 6 times and won just once. They’re just too volatile. I honestly couldn’t tell you if any of them are good or bad right now. It’s frustrating because I kind of like the Bulls -13.5 line this week, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to bet on their games again. Talk about fool me once, they’ve fooled me 4 times.
Instead I’ve actually ended up going all PREM games for my picks this week. I was tempted to throw in Ospreys +9.5 going away to Connacht. It’s two teams battling for 8th spot and somewhat evenly matched. Ospreys rested their Welsh players last week and should be competitive enough to keep it tight. However I lost on the Ospreys a week ago and I’m also a little biased as an Ospreys fan myself, so I think I’ll leave it off this week. That one is actually the tightest line in the URC this week, as it’s a slate full of big favourites, 7 of which are at home. So it just feels like a lot of trap bets. I’m going to stay away from it this week and focus on the mouthwatering slate that English rugby is serving up for us. Starting tonight.
Newcastle Red Bulls v Exeter Chiefs – Friday 19:45 GMT – Kingston Park, Newcastle
Our Pick: Newcastle +12.5 (10/11)
You know Newcastle aren’t that bad anymore. Last week they pushed table toppers Northampton to within a point at Franklin’s Gardens. Before the Six Nations they claimed victory over Gloucester. Away from home they’ve been on the end of some whippings, but at home they’re no longer a team you can guarantee a win against. Since they brought in Stephen Jones to their coaching setup, and further embedded their summer signings into the team, they’ve looked a much more competitive outfit.
This week they host Exeter, who have been one of my favourite teams this year. I love the way they’ve bounced back from last year’s disappointing season and are back competing for the playoffs. They’ve been excellent at Sandy Park, winning all but one game there. On the road though… it’s a different story. Typically, a game between 4th and last would be clear cut and one sided. But that’s not the reality here. Home advantage is so big in the PREM, and when you factor in that Exeter will be without arguably their two most valuable players, Henry Slade and Daf Jenkins, it changes the way you frame this game. Not to mention Len Ikitau is still injured. I think the line is too wide here. I don’t think Exeter, travelling the length of the country to play on a Friday night in Newcastle, are worthy of -12.5. I would personally put it around -8, and even then I’d be tempted by the Newcastle side.
This is my bet of the week. I think Red Bulls are undervalued as a home side right now, so let’s take advantage.
Bristol Bears v Harlequins – Saturday 15:30 GMT – Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Our Pick: Bristol -16.5 (10/11)
Bristol won by 26 points at Twickenham in the reverse of this fixture in December. Given the form of the two teams this season, that wasn’t as much an outlier as it was just a straight up reflection of where they’re at. Harlequins were unable to break down the Bristol defence in December, whilst Bristol had their way with them when they were on the attack. Now move them to the Principality Stadium, with 40,000+ Bristolians cheering on the likes of Ravouvou and Louis Rees-Zammit. I don’t see this one being close.
-16.5 is actually not that wide of a line. It’s quite normal for dominant sides to go beyond that and win by 20+. I was expecting the bookies to have it wider and you certainly wouldn’t be able to make an argument for it being any less than that.
Of all the heavy home favourites this weekend, across the URC and PREM, this is my favourite line of all. Between this and the Newcastle bet, there are two I really like this week.
Sale Sharks v Bath – Sunday 15:00 GMT – CorpAcq Stadium, Salford
Our Pick: Bath -2.5 (10/11)
I am basing this pick on one game. Before the Six Nations, Northampton Saints travelled up to Sale for a game that was absolutely must win for the Sharks. They were starting to fall so far back in the race for Top 4 that it was becoming almost impossible to catch up. If they were to stage an unlikely comeback, they would need to win all their home games, and so they needed to beat Saints. Season on the line, what actually happened is that the Saints walked away 43-29 victors and Sale’s playoff hopes were over.
This feels like a similar sort of scenario, just without the major motivating factor of do-or-die for Sale. They have arguably the PREM’s best team coming to town, and based off what we’ve seen this season, I don’t think they’ll have the quality to beat them. This is one of those really tight lines, being just -2.5 points. So Bath just have to win by a mere 3 points to cover.
Even if the likes of Finn Russell and Guy Pepper get rested, I still think the strength of Bath will just be too much for Sale. I like them to win and cover in this one.
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