Welcome to rugby’s Christmas! The 2026 Guinness Six Nations is upon us, kicking off with Ireland travelling to Paris. Sport’s greatest annual tournament has been condensed this year by a week. Giving us a more concentrated experience of excitement, trepidation, jubilation, sorrow, debate, argument and comradery.
We’re also just over half way in the World Cup cycle, with some teams at a crossroads. We have a mix of rising powers and declining forces. Teams trying to reinvent themselves quickly to be ready for the global showpiece, whilst others are clinging on, hoping they can keep their form going for two more years.
This is usually a time where all 6 of our nations are excited and hopeful, listing off all the reasons why this will be their year. However this time there feels a more subdued atmosphere amongst many of our protagonists. France and England are the presumptive favourites, the former being the defending champions, welcoming back their superhero captain and looking to go one better than the 4 wins from a year ago. England meanwhile are riding an 11-game win streak, a tally the English mind can only interpret as meaning they must be on for a Slam.
In the 2nd tier of our chargers, we have Ireland, an injury riddled and aging squad, trying desperately – hoping – to prove that they are not a declining power. Then we have Scotland, the wildcard of this year’s tournament. The reason I say that is that for the first time in a long time, the calls of “this is our year” from north of Hadrian’s wall have wearily died out. The years of anticlimax and disappointment draining the optimism out of Scottish fans, resigning them to a state of reserved acceptance. Ironic, because I think this might just be their year.
And of course the wooden spoon battle will be fought by the sorry side from Wales and the downtrodden whipping boys of Italy. That is if you listen to the media of course. Something tells me it won’t quite be so straightforward.
Whilst the WRU’s executives have overtaken the England Rugby team as public enemy number 1 in Cymru, there’s actually much reason for optimism. Talent shouldn’t be a limitation on this side’s prospects and in his 2nd campaign in charge, we should start to see growth under Steve Tandy.
Italy have been predicted to win the championship by the great Jonny Wilkinson. I don’t see that happening, but I do believe they can claim an unexpected scalp at the Stadio Olimpico this campaign.
The one thing the Six Nations is almost never, is predictable. But that doesn’t mean we’re not going to try. So let’s have a look at how these teams are shaping up, which players to watch for and how we think they’ll fare, starting with our favourites, France.
France
2025 finish: 1st – Champions
Before we start, I must admit I have a bit of a thing for this French team. They’re a little bit like a mistress for me. I’d never give them a relationship but they’re an irresistible source of fleeting fun. If you strip back the occasional bizarre moments and tendencies to get overly emotional, there’s a romanticism to this French team. They don’t play rugby the same way any other international side plays the game. In every other country the flyhalf runs the show, whereas in France it’s always been le petit général at 9 who leads proceedings. Good thing they’ve got the greatest player to ever live there. The perception around this French team is that they’re a pack of monstrous giants that bulldozer their way over the top of sides and whilst that is mostly true, there’s so much more to this unique side.
Their attack of course starts with Dupont. He’s the playmaker, the decision maker, the supplier and the man that the forwards are tasked with running off. France love to pick a collection of athletic, tall locks and backrowers, complimented by a smattering of heavyweight props. These players then offer themselves as options for Dupont, who sucks in defenders, and finds the weak shoulders before sending his carriers into the gaps. Where France are unique is their ability and preference to offload. Their players know to flood the space and offer themselves to help keep the ball alive. The power of this torrent of brutes busting through the middle, sucks defences in, often in vain attempts to shut down this blue wave. Then they release one of the quickest and most skilful backlines in the world to slice apart whatever is left of the broken defensive line.
They’re marvellous to watch and incredibly hard to stop. So much so that they haven’t finished outside of the top 2 in any of the last 6 Six Nations. With strong set piece and a mighty Shaun Edwards led defence, it’s highly likely to become 7 in a row top 2 finishes. The one area of their game that I have slight questions over is the kicking game. Over the past few seasons they’ve opted for a long kicking strategy that has worked very well for them. However that’s not the meta in rugby right now. The overpowered tactic is to send up contestable box kicks and slap the ball back. It remains to be seen how France adjust to this and whether teams can expose the lack of height in their back three.
Players to Watch:
All the attention around France has been over the players they’ve not selected for this tournament: Damian Penaud, Gregory Alldritt and Gael Fickou. They happen to be the only team though that can drop that calibre of players and cope with it, because they have a conveyor belt of elite young talent coming through to replace them. I’m anticipating big tournaments from their replacements, Nicolas Depoortere and Théo Attissogbe. Both are really exciting talents. Elsewhere Mickael Guillard is an abrasive, all-action second row/number 8 hybrid. Dupont, Ramos and Louis Bielle-Biarrey are always box office viewing, but the intrigue centres around the fly halves. How will Europe’s most inform player, Matthieu Jalibert go at the helm, and will Romain Ntamack replace him once he’s back fit?
Prediction: 1st place – Grand Slam
France are the best team in Europe and I see no reason why they should lose any of their 5 games this year. Scotland away at Murrayfield I view as the biggest potential banana skin, but I back Les Bleus to bring home a Grand Slam.
England
2025 Finish: 2nd
Borthwick’s men are riding an 11-game win streak. A mighty impressive feat and they go into this tournament full of confidence, and naturally expectation. One of the things that Borthwick has managed to do over the past couple seasons is build out depth. Most of their squad has good international experience at this point and this is a team much closer to their peak than most others. They’ve been steadily building over the past 3 years under Borthwick and last year they really buttoned down the hatches and focused on winning, rather than the clichéd ‘we’re just trying to get better every week’. Still though, England haven’t won the Six Nations since 2020 and there’s an expectation that now they need to break that streak.
They have a front 5 that should provide the platform for them, with strong set piece, even if their prop injuries have limited their depth in that area. They have a stable of thoroughbreds in the back row who fly around the park, hitting everything that moves. They have experienced and quality halfbacks that know how to game manage and steer their side around the park. The centres are still in a somewhat experimental phase, but they have game breaking talents in the backs that can create opportunities for them. What this England side is really good at though is hustle, discipline, accuracy and never beating themselves, forcing you to beat them. They’re almost like a tennis player who always hits the ball back down the middle and just waits for you to hit it out or into the net. You’d be amazed how much international rugby is just about not making mistakes and being tough.
Players to Watch:
All the talk in England is around the bleach blonde sensation that is Henry Pollock, however I’d temper expectations for him to do too much this tournament. He’ll likely be used exclusively off the bench, limiting his game time, and it’s also just hard for a 21-year-old to really impact international rugby games. The young backrower I want to highlight is Guy Pepper. He’s been a highly thought of talent for a long time but 2025 was his big breakout year, winning man of the match in the PREM final and being a standout for England in the Autumn. Now he gets to express himself on the biggest stage in the Six Nations. Elsewhere, we can expect more ball carrying brilliance from Ellis Genge and Ben Earl. Tommy Freeman has been the form back in the PREM and will hope to continue that as he shifts into the outside centre role. George Ford is still world class and Immanuel Feyi–Waboso is freakish combo of speed and power, expect fireworks whenever he gets the ball.
Prediction: 3 wins – 2nd or 3rd place finish
Wait, you mean England won’t go to Paris chasing the Grand Slam?!? I know, bold huh. All the talk in the media is that England will cake walk Italy and their home nations brothers. I just don’t understand why they would be favourites at Murrayfield. They haven’t outplayed Scotland in a Calcutta Cup fixture for quite some time so I’m backing the Scots to beat them in Round 2. Other than that, I think England win their home games and topple Italy in Rome.
Ireland
2025 Finish: 3rd
A year ago Ireland came into this tournament as a strong contender, if not favourite, however there were a few warning signs starting to show after a lacklustre Autumn Nations Series a few months prior. Whilst Ireland did win 4 of their 5 games at last year’s Six Nations, a return that usually gets celebrated, the manner in which it unfolded was concerning. They beat an unfancied England side in Round 1 and then won at Murrayfield in Round 2, something that’s impressive until you consider that Ireland completely own Scotland’s number, unbeaten against them in 11 straight. After that, they had two tight, scrappy wins against Wales and Italy, teams they would have been expected to comfortably deal with. The result that really shattered the perception around Ireland was their 42-27 loss at home to France. A game in which they were totally over-powered.
Since then, they’ve lost to New Zealand in Chicago, been demolished physically by South Africa, and now come into this Six Nations with a bit of an injury crisis. Expectations around them are the lowest for a long time.
The reality of Ireland is that they’ve had a golden generation of players, lead by a great couple of coaches in Joe Schmidt initially and Andy Farrell more recently. However this team peaked in 2023 in terms of both age profile and the building of their team. Since then they’ve been on a steady decline and haven’t really blooded the next generation, instead opting to make the most of the players they had invested in for the past 5 or so years. It’s not just the players that have regressed with age, it’s the overall performance of the team. There are certain things you can look at that show you how well a team operates and one of them is discipline. Leading into the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Ireland received just 3 yellow cards in 29 games. Since then, they have had 19 yellows and 3 reds in a 22 game stretch. This is probably the best stat to show how things have changed. The discipline you need to pick up only 3 yellow cards in 29 games is seriously impressive. That’s the sign of a really high performing team. Ireland have lost their excellence. I don’t necessarily think this is down to talent or individual ability. They just aren’t operating at an elite level anymore. It’s just good.
Now they have picked up a number of injuries and they have been forced to turn to the next generation, and to some extent the three other provinces outside of Leinster. This feels like somewhat of a transition period for Ireland and so it remains to be seen how they deal with it. I still would massively caution against writing them off. I think they’ll really struggle against France in the opening round, but there’s no reason they can’t come away from this tournament with another Triple Crown.
Players to Watch:
There are a lot of test Lions in this Ireland side, and perhaps none better than Dan Sheehan. He’s one of the best players in the world and made the number 4 spot on our list of the Top 10 players in this upcoming tournament. He’s unique for a hooker, playing as an almost winger hybrid. Meanwhile, their captain Caelan Doris will no doubt lead the way for a pack that includes big ball carrier Joe McCarthy and Lion’s Player of the Series Tadhg Beirne. In the backs, Sam Pendergast is a young flyhalf who will make some mistakes, but his skillset is unreal. He has an aesthetically wonderful pass and is perhaps the most natural ball striker in the competition. Elsewhere Gary Ringrose played the best rugby of his career on last year’s Lions Tour and will want to continue that.
Prediction: 4th place
I think Ireland will get humbled in Paris in Round 1 but then will bounce back, beating Italy in Round 2. From there, I think they lose in Twickenham but I can’t see Wales getting their first Six Nations win in Dublin since 2012. I’m so torn as to what to predict for Scotland’s trip to the Emerald Isle on Super Saturday. If Ireland can get some of their top players back from injury by then, I think they’ll finish the competition on a win.
Scotland
2025 Finish: 4th
Usually at this time of year the noise coming out of Scottish fans is that this will finally be their year. It turns out that they have finally had enough. Year after year of disappointment, Scottish fans have decided to leave out the optimism. Something tells me though, that it’s only their fans doing that. Inside the Scotland camp I feel there’s a quiet confidence. They have quality players, we know that, but the challenge they have is that they don’t have that many of them. When everyone is fit and healthy, Scotland have a really good starting XV, possibly the best outside of France in the Six Nations. At full strength they have decent bench, but the challenge they usually have is that outside of that first choice 23, there is a big drop off. That’s a large part of the reason why they have been so abysmal in the last 20 minutes of matches over the past 12 months or so. The thing is though, they’re healthy right now. They have the full strength of their squad available to them. So much of sport is about luck, particularly when it comes to injuries. I don’t want to sit here and say that this is Scotland’s year, but I think it might be the best shot they’ve had this century.
One of the elements that makes me feel confident in Scotland doing well this year is that all their players that went on the Lions Tour in 2025, showed up really well. I thought the likes of Scott Cummins and Ben White were really impressive, whilst we already knew the qualities of guys like Finn Russell and the centre pairing known as Huwipulotu. I find that can often be a really good indication of what’s to come. When you put all of Ireland, England and Scotland’s best players together, you start to realise who’s really good and who might not be as good as you previously thought. I think the Scottish players showed us they’ve been a little underrated.
What is not underrated about Scotland though is their backline. It’s awesome. They have wonderful players that are individually all capable of brilliance, however it’s the chemistry they’ve developed over years of playing together that sets them apart. They now have a pack that is tough and rugged enough to create the platform for their backs to do their thing, and they will at times rip apart teams this tournament. Provided they can perform over 80 minutes and not fall off towards the end, as we saw in the Autumn, then Scotland can genuinely challenge for the title.
Players to Watch:
I’ve highlighted the backs, and that’s where the fireworks will come from. Finn Russell is the mercurial talent that steals headlines and is one of the best rugby players in the world, earning a spot in our Team of the Year for 2025. His centres are the real deal, both capable of making arguments that they are the best in the world in their respective positions. So look for Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones to cause a lot of problems for defences. Blair Kinghorn is a dangerous threat running it back from fullback, whilst his 6’6” height comes in very useful defending contestable kicks. Kyle Steyn is a quality operator on the wing, where he’ll be partnered by the pocket rocket that is Darcy Graham. Up front, keep an eye out for the rampaging ball carrying of Jack Dempsey and the jackal work of youngster Freddie Douglas, should he get his opportunity. You can also anticipate calls of “Schooooo” to go around Murrayfield when Pierre Schoeman gets the ball in his hands.
Prediction: 3 wins – 2nd or 3rd place finish
The fixtures line up nicely for Scotland. They’ve got a tough game first up against Italy in Rome, although one in which they are going in as favourites. Then they play England at Murrayfield. Everyone assumes England will win, but I just don’t see it. Scotland have their number and playing at home I expect them to win a tight, but thoroughly entertaining game and reclaim the Calcutta Cup, reigniting the calls that this might just be their year!
Then they travel to Cardiff, a place where they only have 1 win in the past 24 years. Everything suggests they should beat Wales comfortably, but something tells me Scotland lose that match. Then they face France and whilst I could see them winning at home, I’m predicting the French to be too strong for everyone this tournament. The final weekend sees them head to Dublin, where their record against Ireland is abysmal. I do think they can beat them this year, but I don’t have much confidence in it. What I’ll say is that I think they’ll get one win from their trips to Cardiff and Dublin, leaving them on 3 wins and a possible 2nd placed finish. I do though, think the Triple Crown is winnable for them this year.
Italy
2025 Finish: 5th
I really want to see Italy take a step forward this Six Nations. They have a talented young group of players, but they’re moving into that stage where the age profile of the team is more suited to winning now. At some point you have to move on from the growth phase and start to show the fruits of your labour. Italy have some really talented players, particularly in the backs, but they do often struggle with a bit of inconsistency. In years gone by, you could expect 2 or 3 big performances from them but there’d often be 1 or 2 games where they look like the old Italy.
After a really encouraging 2024 Six Nations, in which Italy were a kick away from winning 3 games, they failed to back up that performance last year, finishing 5th again and shipping 73 points to France. What I found most disappointing about that Six Nations is that I genuinely believe Italy could be really good very soon. They’re starting to see the investment they have put into their pathways come to fruition producing some really talented players over the past few years. They have an exciting young team with more talent coming through the pipelines from some strong recent U20s teams. However at some point you need to stop feeling positive about the future and start winning in the present.
Italy have come on a long way recently, even if it doesn’t always feel like it, you just want to see more consistency and that ability to take the next step. The strength of this team lies behind the scrum, with Brex and Menoncello forming one of the most deadly centre combinations around, excellent in both defence and attack. Menoncello in particular is a superstar. In 2024 he won the Six Nations player of the tournament at just 21 years old. Two years later and you feel he’s still only just scratching the surface of his potential. He’s athletically just better than everyone else, combining superhuman strength with speed and power. If Italy can get the best out of their young star, it will go a long way to getting this Italian attack flowing.
They’re coming into this tournament off the back of a strong Autumn, where they beat the Wallabies and really pushed South Africa. Following on from that game against the Springboks, Rassie Erasmus predicted that Italy will have their best Six Nations ever and finish 3rd in 2026. I’m not sure I’m backing Rassie’s prediction. As much as I like Italy, they still feel a cut below some of the other sides and they have one of the longer injury lists of the six teams. They have talented backs that can open up defences, but their forwards just don’t quite have the power to consistently get them on the front foot. Defensively they’re solid but again, they could use a little more power in the contact area.
Players to Watch:
The headline player in this Italy team is Tommaso Menoncello. He’s one of the best players in the world, making our Team of the Year for 2025 and our list of Top 10 Players in the upcoming Six Nations, where you can read more about him. His centre partner Ignacio Brex is another star of this team. He’s incredibly decisive in defence and always makes the right decision, often flying out and shutting down attacks. Then in attack he is as good as anyone at taking the ball to the line and pulling it out the back to a looping Paolo Garbisi. The Italian flyhalf is a natural footballer, with great awareness and the ability to put players into space. His halfback partner is one of the key men for Italy this tournament. Stephen Varney has been playing the best rugby of his career this year having moved to Exeter. He was a big reason why Italy were so good in the Autumn and will need to keep pushing his team forward this month. Out wide, Monty Ioane is one of the competitions best wingers, a deadly open field runner, and Louis Lynagh has a unique ability to find his way to the tryline.
In the pack, captain Michele Lamaro is a safe bet to make a ridiculous number of tackles. Meanwhile look out for the Cannone brothers, Lorenzo in particular, to be key ball carriers. Alessandro Izekor is one of Italy’s most talented young players, this could be the championship he makes his mark.
Prediction: 6th place and the Wooden Spoon
They do have the tools to spring some upsets. I would love to see them finally get a win over England, although they seem to be stylistically a challenge for Italy. It’s frustrating that guys like Negri, Ange Capuozzo and Ross Vincent are out injured. That’s a lot of quality they’ll have to replace. Round 1 is a big one for them, because Italy’s most winnable games are the opener against Scotland and the finale against Wales. Unfortunately I think they’ll lose both. But what I think will be key for Italy is to win at least one game and be competitive in the others. They cannot afford another game like the one they conceded 73 points to France in.
Wales
2025 Finish: Wooden Spoon
I’m so torn on Wales. Almost every campaign they’ve had for the last two years, I’ve said this will be the one where they turn it around and start performing more like the Wales we’re used to. Then every campaign somehow manages to be worse than the last. What I’m going to do this time instead is give you all the reasons why this Six Nations will be different, and then the reasons why it won’t. You can be the judge of whether Wales will do well or end up with another wooden spoon.
So why will Wales do well? A couple years ago I looked at some of the young players coming through in Wales and felt that another golden generation could be on the way. The problem was that all the players I felt were part of that were years away from getting to an age where they could start being quality internationals and positively impact games at the highest level. It was players like Daf Jenkins, Jac Morgan, Dewi Lake, Christ Tshiunza, Joe Hawkins and Mason Grady that gave me hope. Most of the guys I’ve just mentioned have barely played for Wales in the past couple years through injury or other factors. Other players were clearly talented, but were being sent into international rugby before they were ready. Alex Mann is a prime example. He made his debut for Wales two years ago, just weeks after turning 22. Now however, this talented crop of youngsters are starting to get to the ages where they might reasonably be expected to step up at this level. Other players have become available again for Wales, like Tomas Francis, Rhys Carre and Louis Rees-Zammit. Suddenly, this Wales squad looks a lot stronger than it has done in previous campaigns.
The other thing I’d flag is the backline. Over the last couple years, Wales have had one of the smaller backlines around. This year, they might turn up with the biggest in the championship, a throwback to the glory days under Gatland. If Wales choose to, they could have Hawkins, Eddie James, Mason Grady and Louis Rees-Zammit all providing much needed power to get Wales on the front foot. Much has been made of Wales’s lack of power in the past couple years, but not all of that is down to the forwards. The backs can help contribute to getting Wales on the front foot and guys like Eddie James (6’4” 110kg) and Mason Grady (6’6” 112kg) will be big helps with that.
Wales also should have better set piece this tournament, boosted by the return of Tomas Francis and a healthy Archie Griffin on the tighthead. Overall, this Wales squad is much stronger on paper than people realise. There are some quality players there and in campaign number 2 under Tandy, they should open up the playbook further. Hopefully this tournament Tandy can get the defence operating at a much higher level.
So why won’t Wales do well? The big one is the WRU. This happens almost every time the boys go into camp, but the WRU are destroying Welsh rugby right now and are trying to get rid of the Ospreys as we speak. There is massive uncertainty in Welsh rugby and players at both Cardiff and the Ospreys face massive question marks around what the future of their clubs look like. We’ve seen it in the past. Three years ago the Welsh players almost went on strike for the England game. The WRU make being a professional rugby player incredibly hard for these guys. Whilst every other team is focusing on the Six Nations and on rugby, the Welsh players have to go through all the bull***t that their executives put on them. For this reason, it’s unrealistic to expect Wales to play at their best. Couple that with the fact that they are still very early in Steve Tandy’s tenure and it’s going to be a long, slow process to imbed his gameplan, and this team are operating at a disadvantage compared to the others. We haven’t even got into the fact that Wales were terrible in 2025, with poor defence and plagued by ill-discipline. Whilst they are generally okay on the injury front, missing Jac Morgan is huge. Not only is he the captain, he’s also arguably the best openside on the planet. The backrow could be an issue for Wales this campaign and they really need to get selection right there.
It’s hard to know exactly what we’ll get from Wales this tournament, but there is reason for optimism if you choose to look for it.
Players to Watch:
I mentioned the size and power of the backline and I’m excited to see how they perform. I’m a huge fan of Joe Hawkins who will likely play 12. He’s one of the best playmakers you’ll see, with a unique ability to pass players into space (just watch his cut out pass for Tom Rogers’ hatrick try against the All Blacks). Eddie James could partner him in midfield and he’s been one of the form centres in Europe the past month or two. He’s big and physical but has a lovely passing game too. Louis Rees–Zammit is the superstar in this Wales team, a world class player who can light up this championship. If given the platform then 2025’s PREM player of the season Tomos Williams is another world class player who can create something from nothing. Mason Grady may also get some game time and whilst he’s still pretty raw, he’s one of the most gifted athletes in rugby and is a serious problem as a ball carrier.
In the pack, Dewi Lake has barely played in the Six Nations in recent years but he and Rhys Carre will provide some much needed carrying off 9. Daf Jenkins has been playing the best rugby of his career this season and I’m predicting him to have a really strong tournament. In the backrow Wales will really need Aaron Wainwright to show us some of his 2024 form and to get Wales going forward.
Prediction: 1, maybe 2 wins – 5th place finish
Everyone is expecting Wales to win the wooden spoon again but I wouldn’t be too sure. I think they’ll beat Italy in the final round, but they could also very well end up beating Scotland at home. They have a good record in that fixture but they need to show improvement from last year. I’d love them to beat England but it would be one of the championships biggest ever upsets if they did that. I just can’t see Wales beating France and when it comes to the Dublin trip, Wales haven’t won there in the Six Nations since 2012. Feels unlikely that this is the team to change that.
Final Predictions
- France – Grand Slam
- Scotland
- England
- Ireland
- Wales
- Italy