The opening weekend of the 2026 Guinness Six Nations reminded us exactly why this is the best sporting competition in the world. On the opening night we had the joy of watching one of the most exciting and brilliant teams on the planet express themselves as France saw off Ireland. Immediately after the game the autopsy of Ireland’s performance commenced. For the first time in a long time, we saw Ireland be totally uncompetitive against a fellow European rival. There have been plenty of questions asked about where Ireland go from here, and based on their selection for this week’s game against Italy, I’d say France bounced them into a sudden rebuild. It’s something that’s been brewing for a while, but it doesn’t take the shock factor out of seeing it laid out bare in such brutal fashion. Ireland’s falloff will certainly be one of the biggest storylines to watch as the competition progresses.
Elsewhere, Italy! What a win for the Azzurri. For a few seasons Italy have looked much more competitive, but this feels different. They won that game based on a determined defensive effort and a few smart plays. This wasn’t like many of Italy’s previous Six Nations victories. We need to start paying proper respect to Gonzalo Quesada’s side, because they look a proper team right now, with serious intention.
Then there was England v Wales. What a torrid sight this Wales team are right now. Their performance on the field perfectly encapsulated the current situation off the field in Welsh Rugby. Meanwhile the England machine just keeps churning. There’s a clinical ruthlessness to this side. In truth, they weren’t tested. But that changes this week, as the tournament sees one of its headline fixtures take place at Murrayfield on Saturday.
Before we head into the weekend, we’ve analysed each of the 3 games and are making our picks against the spread. Last week we predicted Italy to cover against Scotland but we didn’t see them taking the spoils. This week we’re absolutely anticipating the upsets to continue (don’t worry, I’m not talking about Wales).
Scotland v England – Saturday 16:40 GMT – Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh
Our Pick: Scotland +8.5
This isn’t just my bet of the week, this is my bet of the tournament. I’ve been eyeing this up since before the tournament started and all Scotland’s loss last week did was improve the odds you’ll get on them. I don’t care that Scotland lost to Italy. Rome is a tough place to go, Italy are much better than people give them credit for and the weather conditions also made the majority of the game unplayable. Everything changes this week though. Scotland actually haven’t been a particularly good side the last few years, but when the Calcutta Cup comes around, they play like the All Blacks. They’ve won 3 of the last 4 games in this fixture and they really should have beaten England at Twickenham last year. It was only missed kicks at goal that saved England.
Scotland will come to play, they’ll be physical and their backs have a chance to be the difference makers. As for England, they’re a strong side, riding an impressive 12 game win streak. They’re playing good, error free rugby, with an elite game manager in George Ford pulling the strings. They still have a lot to prove though. Their win streak has mostly been played at Twickenham so we’re still yet to see them play a good side on the road. Scotland at Murrayfield will arguably be their toughest challenge for some time.
I’m going to be bold and predict a Scotland win (3/1 odds on that btw). But if you’re not convinced, the bookies are giving us 8.5 points on Scotland. Surely Scotland will at the very least keep this one close.
Another one I’d just throw out there: Scotland to win the Triple Crown is 12/1. Even if they win this weekend, they still need to win in Cardiff and Dublin, but it’s tempting.
Ireland v Italy – Saturday 14:10 GMT – Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Our Pick: Italy +17.5
I was to-ing and fro-ing all week with this line. I didn’t know which way to call it, the 17.5 points just felt like a trap. Surely Italy are competitive enough to cover? But then it’s Ireland in Dublin, they’re always strong there. Since the teams were announced though, I’ve become convinced Italy is the side to take in this one. They beat Australia and pushed South Africa in the Autumn. Last week they played with so much intent and purpose. This is a settled side, close to full health, and I can’t help but look at them and see a team that’s ready. A team that has moved on from the ‘improving’ to the ‘proving’ stage. Italy are built to win now.
Ireland, in contrast, are… well I don’t know what Ireland are. And quite frankly I’m not sure they know where they’re at. Is this a rebuild? A side in transition? The way they’re playing and the side they’ve selected very much gives that impression. But I don’t get the feeling this was planned. Injuries have been cruel to them coming into this tournament but I never got the impression that Farrell and his staff saw this as a transition year. However the manner in which they were dispatched by France has forced their hand. I don’t really know what to expect from Ireland this week, but what I do know is that this is a side that has regressed every game since they beat the Springboks in 2024.
Unlike the Calcutta Cup match above, I’m not going to go all the way to predicting an Italy win, but I think it is very possible. At 7/1 I think it’s great odds. However I am feeling pretty good about Italy +17.5 and could even be tempted to get on an alternative at +10.5 (13/8) or even +7.5 (9/4).
Actually you know what, to hell with it. I’m going bold! Italy will beat Ireland in Dublin for the first time in the Six Nations! There you go, you’ve heard it here first.
Wales v France – Sunday 15:10 GMT – Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Our Pick: Don’t bet it, but if you do, France -31.5
Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don’t make. The one thing I’ve learned betting on sports, is that if you’re not confident in a bet, don’t bet. That’s how you dilute the quality of your bets and offset the wins you get on the times you do have the right opinion.
With this Wales v France game I just don’t think it’s wise to take either side. On the one hand France are exceptional and Wales are awful. That should suggest the France -31.5 is the one to take. On the other hand, Wales’s issues are more about their unrivalled ability to beat themselves than they are about talent. If Wales get up for the game, start well and perform the way they are capable of, then they’ll keep it somewhat competitive. We’ve seen both sides of it in the last 12 months. Against Ireland last year and New Zealand in November, Wales showed signs of what they’re capable of. Against England twice and South Africa, Wales showed that they are also capable of unparalleled capitulation.
I am much more confident about Steve Tandy’s selection this week than I was for the opening round. Joe Hawkins is absolutely the answer at 12. He’s one of the most talented footballers around, with a unique ability to put players into space. Whilst his combination with Eddie James should provide the power Wales have sorely lacked from their centres since the World Cup. Up front Wales have at last picked a pack full of players with the size and power to compete at international level.
We do also have to note though that France are not like England. They are on another level entirely as a team, and are right up there with the Springboks as one of the two elite sides in the world right now. Their halfbacks could do some truly filthy things if Wales aren’t at the races defensively. They have a way of playing that the Welsh players simply won’t be used to, because the French play rugby totally differently from everyone else. Their centres this week may be young and inexperienced, but like everyone else in their side, they’re uber-talented. There’s a high probability Wales simply won’t be able to live with this French team, because quite frankly, almost no one can.
I would caution betting either side in this game, but if you do, I’d favour the elite qualities of this superstar French team. If in doubt, bet on the side that has Dupont.