Well, at last we can return to sanity. The hustings are over, the bunting is down, the mad hysteria is at an end. After the chaos of a Six Nations, we can return to normal.
What a Six Nations that was might I say. I sent a tweet out on X after the final whistle in Paris on Saturday saying simply, “Greatest Six Nations Ever”. A week on and I’m not sure I got anything wrong there.
Oh how I’ve chuckled though when pundits have commented on just how unpredictable the tournament was. I guess for many it was, however if you’d have been reading our betting previews throughout the championship you’ll have seen that some of us actually found the tournament pretty predictable. Often the case in these scenarios is that you simply have to play a game of overvalued/undervalued. Teams usually fluctuate between the two, particularly when the emotion that Six Nations rugby is so steeped in gets involved. Then you always must assume home advantage is bigger than you would think. This year we only had 3 away victories (Scotland and France in Cardiff, and Ireland in Twickenham), which perhaps is on the low side, but it feels about right. Winning on the road is tough.
How have our betting picks done?
To wrap up our Six Nations we’ll look back at our record over the tournament, picking games against the spread. In total we made 13 picks (missing the opener between France and Ireland, and the France v Italy game). Of those 13 picks we correctly called 11 of them. We also correctly called Italy and Scotland’s victories over England, whilst incorrectly calling Italy to topple Ireland.
Had you placed £10 on each of the 13 picks we gave, you’d have turned £130 into £208.73. Netting yourself a profit of £98.73 which is a 76% return on investment. I’m pretty happy with that.
Honestly, I loved betting this tournament and I wish the Six Nations had another few rounds for us to go after, however all good things must come to an end, and now we must turn our attention back to the PREM and the URC.
PREM Round 11 & URC Round 13
For this week, I’m just going to pick a couple lines I like. Whilst in the Six Nations you only get 3 games to bet on each week, club rugby gives you a wide array of matches. I want to emphasise though, that doesn’t mean bet on more games, it means be more selective! There are a tonne of lines here I just have no interest in betting, but with 13 games on, we can find a few gems.
Bulls v Cardiff – Friday 17:00 GMT – Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Our Pick: Cardiff +21.5 (5/6)
It would be quite the upset if Cardiff were able to pull off a victory here, away in South Africa, straight after a number of their players have been involved in the Six Nations. However they have still managed to send a pretty strong squad down south, and a number of those boys will be champing at the bit to get playing again, after just the one game in the last 6 weeks. An evening kick-off is also more preferable for Cardiff, as the conditions will be slightly cooler, benefiting the defence.
The Bulls have had an up and down season, a loss to the Stormers last week being another down. Whilst they are pretty likely to win this game, we get 3 scores to work with here, making the Cardiff side the more tempting.
We’re really looking for Cardiff’s defence to be better than the bookies anticipate, and their attack to net them a few tries. The Bulls will win, but this pick is more about Cardiff, a side that I think sit in the undervalued category.
Exeter Chiefs v Sale Sharks – Saturday 15:05 GMT – Sandy Park, Exeter
Our Pick: Exeter -7.5 (10/11)
Away wins are really hard in the PREM, and often we see the homes sides blow out opponents, even when we think it’s an evenly match game. That’s what we’re banking on here. Exeter have been one of the form teams in England this season, particularly when playing at Sandy Park, where Bristol are the only team to beat them in the PREM or Challenge Cup. Outside of that heavily weather effected game, the closest a team has got to Exeter at home has been Leicester, when they lost by 14 points.
Sale meanwhile have had an overall disappointing season so far, all but out of playoff contention. The logic here suggests Exeter should win by 10+ points, so when we get -7.5 as the line, I think it’s smart to take it.
Lions v Edinburgh – Saturday 12:45 GMT – Ellis Park, Johannesburg
Our Pick: Lions -11.5 (10/11)
I don’t know if you noticed this with the Six Nations on, but the Lions won the South African Shield. They have been really good this season. There’s a reason they sit 7th in the table. Meanwhile Edinburgh have not been good. They’ve won just 4 of their 12 URC games this season.
Now they have to travel to Ellis Park, one of the toughest places to go and play rugby. I personally was pretty surprised when I saw this line. I would have put this line at perhaps Lions -17.5 or somewhere around there. I don’t think this game will be this close. The Lions are the better team, playing at home, and Edinburgh are flying all the way down to South Africa for it.
Benetton v Ospreys – Saturday 15:00 – Stadio Monigo, Treviso
Our Pick: Ospreys to win (7/4)
Sure, you could take the Ospreys +6.5 in this one, but why not be bold?
I think this is a prime spot for an away upset. Benetton haven’t been their usual selves this season, a bit below par. They also will likely be missing a number of players who have been involved in 5 Six Nations matches in the past 6 weeks. The Ospreys on the other hand, have far fewer players impacted by the international break and should field a strong squad, possibly including Jac Morgan. I would recommend waiting to see what teams they each select, because if Treviso decide to play the likes on Menoncello, then that obviously changes things.
However, if they leave out most their Italy stars, the Ospreys will really fancy their chances here. They have played some decent rugby this season and are well in the hunt for the top 8. A win away in Italy would be a huge boost to their playoff hopes, and I think it’s highly possible.