After 4 rounds of pool stages, where losing was pretty far from disastrous, we now get to the knockouts. I’ll start by admitting, this weekend’s fixture list doesn’t have a European Cup knockout feel to it. Looking at the betting slate, 5 of the 8 games are predicted to be won by more the 15 points, with the higher seeded home teams expected to dominate. For context, in 3 years of the Round of 16, there have only been 2 away victories. Hardly the most compelling way to run a competition. But I’ll stop being cynical now and highlight the couple games that do look particularly enticing.
But before we get into this week’s picks, here’s a look at where we’re at overall. Every week we’ll be updating our record so you can see how we’re doing with our predictions. I’ll be as honest and open as possible so you know whether I’m a charlatan or whether I might know a thing or two. The one thing I would emphasise is that with betting, you have to make your own decisions. I am just providing thoughts and ideas. That being said, for a bit of fun, we’ll track our record and model a PNL tracker.
Our Betting Record
Since launching our betting previews in November 2025, we have made 44 picks against the spread across the Autumn Nations Series, Champions Cup, PREM, URC and Six Nations.
Record: 27 wins, 17 losses (61% win rate)
Had you placed £10 on every pick, you would have turned £440 into £513.8 — a profit of £73.18 and a return on investment of 16.6%.
For those who prefer a more dynamic approach, if you had started with a £100 pot and staked 10% of your pot on each bet, that pot would now stand at £166.87 — a 66.9% return since November.
All picks are published every Friday on Substack and @Gameline_Sports on X before kick-off.
Onto this week
Last week I said I was blacklisting the Sharks, Stormers and Bulls from betting picks. I’m glad I did, because I was tempted by the Bulls -13.5 against Munster, and they ended up winning by just 3 points. As such, they remain very much on the blacklist. Although they have just picked their full strength side for the trip to Glasgow on Saturday, so even though I won’t be betting it, I’m very excited for that game.
We’re only doing two picks this week. I know it’s not the volume we want, but I just don’t like a lot of the lines this week. We’ve got 5 games with lines that are 15+ points, 3 of them are over 24 points. I’m not a huge fan of betting those long odds. In games that are one-sided like these it can be quite unpredictable with random tries getting scored when no one is really focused on the end result, because one side already has it in the bag. So we’re keeping our predictions to the tighter games, and of course, the Bulls trip to Glasgow is on the blacklist.
Harlequins v Sale Sharks – 20:00 BST Saturday – The Stoop, Twickenham
Our Pick: Harlequins -2.5
Welcome to the Champions Cup knockouts, where 9th in the PREM hosts 7th in the PREM. Only the best of the best in this comp! I can jest, but this is one of the only games this weekend that isn’t a foregone conclusion. A week ago I’d have fancied Sale, but Harlequins shocked us all last week when they beat Bristol Bears. They’ve been horrible in the PREM this season, but in the Champions Cup they’ve looked like a totally different team. Underneath, there is something there with Quins, and perhaps the news that their interim coach will now have the job going forward has spurred them to start playing like a proper team.
Sale meanwhile will be feeling a little deflated after last week’s late loss to Bath late on. Now they are in a situation, like Harlequins, where this competition is the last one where they can still achieve something this season. I don’t think either side has a chance of winning next week, whomever that is against, but this week’s game is very competitive. The rule of thumb in the PREM is that if the teams are fairly evenly matched, the home side will probably win.
Just like a week ago with Sale, we’re picking them to lose, and with 2.5 points the spread, we’ll take Harlequins to cover. Neither are particularly good teams this season, but Quins have some momentum right now and it might just carry them into a European quarterfinal.
Toulon v Stormers – 15:00 BST Saturday – Stade Mayol, Toulon
Our Pick: Toulon -4.5
This is the game of the week from the neutral’s perspective. Two strong sides going head-to-head in the sunshine of the French riviera. Mercurial talents on both sides. Toulon may be languishing down in 11th in the Top 14 table, however they are hardly a poor side. The game that is inspiring this pick is one we won on back in the group stages. English champions Bath travelled to the Stade Mayol in December, losing to the French hosts by 9 points. The line for that game was Toulon -1.5. This time it’s a little wider but I think the reasoning remains. Toulon were a little underestimated at that time, and I think they might still be. Winning away in France is really tough. So despite the fact that the Stormers have Sacha and Willemse, who I usually would never want to bet against, I think this is going to be a tough challenge for the tourists.
The Stormers are technically on the blacklist at the moment, but I’m going to take them off for this one week. Perhaps it’s a foolish move, but I’ll take my chances and see how it goes. The reason I’m taking them off is that I was having issues overestimating the Stormers. In this one, it’s less about over or underestimating them, and more about feeling that Toulon are the underappreciated force.
I expect that Toulon will win this one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do it by more than one score. That’s why I’m taking them to cover the -4.5 points in this one.
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