As we head into week 4 of the Nations Series, we’re starting to get a better idea of where each of these teams are at. Still, the concept of playing back-to-back-to-back internationals and the emotional challenge that comes with getting up for those games is going to be taking a toll on some teams. For most, this is the last hit out of the year. So, who will be focused on leaving everything out there and who will be thinking of Mad Monday and the plane ride back home?
We’ll be looking at all the weekend’s major games and picking which side we like against the spread.
For context, against the spread betting is a wager on a team’s margin of victory or defeat, not just the final outcome of the game. To win, the favoured team must win by more than the specified point spread (which will be a negative number), while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread (positive number).
Wales v New Zealand (-28.5) – Saturday 22nd Nov, 15:10 GMT
Wales could not ask for a worse time to play the All Blacks. The All Blacks, by their standards, were pretty terrible last week. They suffered a humbling loss in Twickenham, looked all out of sorts, and are getting ripped to shreds in the New Zealand media. Calls for their coaches to be fired, players to be sacked – just the standard stuff for when the All Blacks suffer a single loss. It has to be said though, they were very sloppy last week and some of negative media is actually very reasonable. The point being, they will be so fired up to take out their anger on Wales this week. This is a point of pride for this Kiwi team and I fully expect to see them firing on all cylinders this week.
Meanwhile Wales have looked horrible for two straight weeks. They have their moments where they show you the potential of what this team could be but there are just so many poor errors, lapses in concentration and easy tries conceded. Discipline has also been way below par. Whilst Wales fronting up and putting in their best performance of the Autumn against this special opposition is something I can absolutely see happening, I just really worry for Wales that this could be a bloodbath.
Our Pick: New Zealand -28.5pts
It’s a lot of points but in the last 12 months Wales have lost by 32, 33, 43, 54 and 24 to Australia, South Africa, France, England and Argentina. So losing by 29 or more to the All Blacks feels tragically realistic.
Ireland v South Africa (-6.5) – Saturday 22nd Nov, 17:40 GMT
So for all the fears that Ireland are on the decline, they were back to their best against the Wallabies last weekend, putting in a vintage performance on the way to a dominant 46-19 win. Very impressive, but this week they face a very different beast. South Africa have been exceptional this year and their last two games have been so impressive. This South Africa team are in such a good spot right now and are unequivocally the best team in the world. They won in Paris whilst playing half the game a man down, then rotated their side and won in Turin after an early red that triggered Rassie to sub 4 players off in the opening 25 minutes. I can’t tell you how impressed I have been with them these past two weeks, especially when I see how sloppy some other sides have been this Autumn. They do not give anything away for free. Every point scored against the Boks is so hard fought. Meanwhile they have so much star power in their side that if you give them a sniff they magic up 7 points so quickly. Watching them in two tough encounters, just to pull away in the last 20mins to win by 15 and 18 points tells me this is a side you do not want to bet against.
Ireland in Dublin is a hell of a challenge though. The men in emerald green always elevate their game when playing at the Aviva and have a tremendous record there. They’ll have to put in their best performance of the year by some margin to pull this one off, and even then it may not be enough.
Our Pick: South Africa -6.5
This is one of those ones that I’m really glad is -6.5 and not -7. That half point can mean a lot given the nature of rugby’s scoring. I’ll admit, I don’t love betting against Ireland in Dublin, but South Africa are just so exceptional right now. My prediction is this game is in the balance for 65 minutes, then South Africa pull away at the end. They’ve done it too many times and it’s almost reminiscent of the All Blacks of the Carter and McCaw era.
France (-16.5) v Australia – Saturday 22nd Nov, 20:10 GMT
So this is an interesting one, we have two teams that combined have lost all 5 of their games this month against the spread. In short, they’ve both been disappointing. Especially given I gave them both a BUY recommendation in the pre-Autumn stock watch. Both sides have been without their best players with Dupont and Skelton out and I think that’s had a massive impact on the way they’ve played. For France, even without Dupont they have a great team, with great players and I would still rank them as the 2nd best side in the world. But so much of their attack centres around big ball carriers running off their superstar petit général. Without him, that attacking structure just doesn’t work the same.
Likewise for Australia, they have been at their best this year when they’ve basically just sent massive blokes crashing it up off 9 and winning the physicality battle at the gain line. The problem is, Skelton is such a massive part of that, and without him it just simply hasn’t been working. When they try and play other ways they seem to run out of answers very quickly.
So where does that leave us as we look ahead to this one? Both sides need a good performance, Australia probably more so. Then we also need to consider that this will be Joe Schmidt’s last game in charge (still trying to work out whether that means they’ll play better or worse). France are certainly the better side, but they can also be a bit emotionally bizarre and this is an odd game for them.
Our Pick: Australia +16.5
I’m pretty sure France will win this game but I like Australia to cover and keep it somewhat close. They’ll want to put some pride back in the jersey after a tough November and they’ll also want to send their coach off on a high. I am a little concerned that the France team does look very powerful, but I also don’t trust them to be quite at their best in this one.
England (-9.5) v Argentina – Sunday 23rd Nov, 16:10 GMT
From a rugby watching point of view, I absolutely love this game. From a betting perspective, I’d probably stay away. Unlike France and Australia, these two have been winning bets against the spread so far this month. Argentina have had two really good results this November. The manner of their win in Cardiff was very impressive, and a win in Murrayfield against a strong Scotland side was huge. It’s funny, I mentioned in my stock watch article that Argentina were worth a buy but highly volatile. One week they’ll be great and pull off a big win, the next they’ll wildly underwhelm. That’s exactly what was happening until Santi Carreras came onto the field around the 50 minute mark last Saturday. In the first half they were so error prone and were really very poor. Then they turned it around and were insatiable. So honestly, I have no clue what they’ll give us at Twickenham on Sunday.
As far as England are concerned, they entered the Nations Series with sky high expectations and have managed to exceed them. They’re in a weird space where you would say both Australia and New Zealand played very poorly against them but you never quite know how much of the credit needs to go to England for that. The New Zealand win was a massive emotional high for this team, a big result in the game they’d have been targeting. I usually like to fade teams a week after a big emotional win. However, they are riding a wave of positivity right now and have real momentum. This is a game that either side can win but I think England will come out on top. The question is, will they be good for the 9.5 points the bookies are giving them?
Our Pick: England -9.5
Tough one to call this. The thing that swings it towards England is how good they’ve been at the end of their games this month. When it comes down to that final 15 minutes when bets are won or lost, they’ve been able to pull away. Argentina are a strong side though, with many of the PREM’s best players, who will be used to playing against this English lot.