As F1 heads to Sin City, the capital of gambling, it’s only right we take a look at the latest odds and see which ones we like. From a betting perspective I actually think this is one of the most exciting Grand Prix of the year, given the unconventional nature of the Vegas track. For most of this season it has just been McLaren and sometimes Verstappen competing for wins, but this track is unique and it can give some surprising performance to cars that aren’t usually at the front.
Given the long straights on this track, the best comparisons we have to other F1 circuits are probably Monza, Baku and Jeddah. One of the most talked about themes for this weekend is the cool night temperatures and the challenges the teams and drivers will have to get their tyres up to working windows. Whoever does that best may hit the jackpot.
I won’t be recommending any bets here, what I will do is highlight a few bets that I think look interesting and provide a little commentary and thoughts on them.
To Win Outright:
Max Verstappen – 7/4
So Max is the favourite for this race and it makes sense. Obviously it goes without saying that he’s the best driver and his car looks pretty competitive still. Where this makes sense is that at Jeddah, Monza and Baku, all somewhat similar circuits to Vegas, Max put his car on pole and went on to win two of them and came a close second to Piastri in Saudi Arabia.
It’s reasonable to think he’ll put his car on pole once more, and if that happens then it’s hard to see him relinquishing his lead. With McLaren having struggled at the last two iterations of this race, Max could have the best car as well as be the best driver.
Oscar Piastri – 8/1
This is about betting the number. I know, I know, Piastri has been pretty far off the pace the last few races. But he’s still a quality driver who has won a third of the races this season. His teammate sits at 5/2 despite being the form driver/car combo right now. McLaren have struggled at the last two Vegas Grand Prix but their car has improved and changed in the past year. They may try and downplay their chances to the media but F1 teams always do that. The McLaren is too good a car to rule out and getting 8/1 on one of its drivers is a very interesting proposition.
Charles Leclerc – 18/1
Ok, so now we’re very much looking at the outsiders. To be honest, there is a reason why this line has such long odds. Ferrari haven’t won a race all season, they’ve not looked like doing it either really and they’ve just had they Chairman call out the team and the drivers. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the uber talented and now fairly experienced Leclerc, and literally one of the greatest drivers of all time, Lewis Hamiliton, are probably not the issue at Ferrari. Anyway, Ferrari have been pretty competitive at Las Vegas in the past so it’s not totally infeasible to think Leclerc could throw his car onto pole and hang on for 50 laps.
Fastest Qualifier:
Kimi Antonelli – 17/2
So the thing I find interesting about this line is that it has the same odds as Antonelli winning the race outright. Mercedes are expected to be good this weekend. They won the race last year with Russell, whilst Hamilton finished 2nd. Russell’s odds are naturally much shorter than his rookie teammate, but it was Antonelli who put his car on the front row last race. It was Antonelli who took a surprise pole in the Miami sprint qualifying. He’s got speed and this is the time of the season where rookies can start coming into their own. It’s a long shot, for sure. But not impossible that this talented youngster surprises in the USA once again. He has the same odds to qualify first as he does to win the race, and I find it hard to see him winning if he doesn’t start on the front row. So I prefer this side of the Antonelli bets.
Charles Leclerc – 12/1
Ok, so maybe Leclerc winning for Ferrari is too hard to fathom. But if anyone can deliver over 1 lap, it’s this guy. He has 27 career poles compared to just 8 wins. That’s not because he can’t race, it’s because he has an ability to maximise the performance of a flawed car over a single lap. On the other hand, he only has the one pole this season, which is why it’s 12/1 odds for this weekend.
Top 6 Finish:
Oliver Bearman – 5/1
With top 6 finishes in back-to-back races and points finishes in 4 straight weekends, it’s very feasible he could continue this rich vein of form he’s found. Bearman is a very capable driver and Haas seem to have improved of late. Top 6 is hard though, there are 7 cars that will take the top 7 places if they don’t have issues. Las Vegas is the sort of circuit that can throw up surprises though. Remember Ocon and Stroll finishing in the top 5 a couple years ago?
Points Finish:
Carlos Sainz/Alex Albon – 11/10
Williams feel like they’re due a bit of luck at some point and something just feels right about getting it in Vegas. Of the two drivers, who have the same odds to finish in the points, I think I slightly prefer Sainz. He’s had some strong showings at this race in the past and is obviously a very good driver. He’s not had a great run of luck but why can’t this be the weekend it turns around?
Yuki Tsunoda – 6/4
Come on Yuki, I believe in you! It’s been a tough season for the Japanese driver since he stepped up to the cursed Red Bull 2nd seat. He has shown some promise at times this season though and he does after all have a good car, even if it is tricky to drive. I’m in two minds on this one. Part of me thinks this is a good line given the car and driver, plus he’s shown some decent performances at high speed circuits. On the other hand, Vegas is a tricky track and might be the sort of race where you need confidence in the car underneath you- which he’s obviously struggling with.
Gabriel Bortoleto – 7/4
So the Sao Paolo Grand Prix didn’t go to plan for the Brazilian rookie. In fact that’s a massive understatement. He had the biggest crash of the season, and one of the biggest I’ve ever seen. At least they fixed it in time for him to crash again on Sunday.
Ok, I’m being silly. Bortoleto is really good. He’s one of the most talented drivers on the grid and so I’m backing the talent. He’s put in some strong results already this season. He’s finished in the top 11 in 3 of the last 6 races, so I like his chances of getting into the top 10 this weekend, given the odds.