This is it. The final round of the Champions Cup pool stage. The final chance for teams to stamp their place in the knockouts, the final chance for teams to fight for those seedings that are going to give them home advantage in the upcoming rounds. The final chance for some sides to send out their B teams and rest their best players without consequences… Sorry, I can be cynical sometimes.
There are some major storylines though that we do need to look at as we head into this final round. So we’re going to switch it up compared to our usual format of just giving you our favourite betting picks. We’ll go game by game, explain what’s at stake and what to watch for. Then for the ones we like, we’ll give our picks for which side of the betting lines we like the look of.
As a reminder of how the format works regarding qualification for the knockouts and seedings, this year the top 4 teams in each pool of 6 will qualify for the Champions Cup Round of 16. The 5th place teams will drop down into the Challenge Cup (arguably a more attractive option for many teams) and the 6th placed sides will be eliminated altogether.
The 1st placed teams in each group will take the top 4 seeds, with the order of that 4 decided by how many points they have. The 2nd place teams will then fill seeds 5 to 8 and so on. The seedings do genuinely matter quite a lot, because as the tournament progresses to the Round of 16, quarterfinals and semis, the top seeded teams in each fixture will get home advantage. In short, finishing top of your group will give you a home Round 16 and quarterfinal. Finishing 2nd in your group will give you a home Round 16. And 3rd and 4th placed teams will have to go on the road in the knockouts.
I should just point out, at the time of writing, only the Friday night games have had the line-ups revealed. So betting lines and favoured picks could change with team announcements. If you want check out how these 24 teams stack up, we ranked every team from 1 to 24 in our latest Champions Cup Power Rankings.
Friday 16th January
Bath v Edinburgh – 20:00 GMT – The Rec, Bath
What’s on the line: Starting things off with a top of the table clash in Pool 2. With a win here Bath can clinch 1st place in the pool, guaranteeing a home Round of 16 game, and if they win that, a home quarterfinal. Edinburgh are very likely to make the knockouts regardless of what happens on Friday, but any form of bonus point would give them an extra layer of comfort. A win would see them potentially top the pool, and a bonus point win would guarantee that.
Our Pick: Edinburgh +28.5
I absolutely expect Bath to win with a bonus point, but we’re getting a lot of points with Edinburgh here. This would need to be Bath’s biggest home win of the season to cover their side and even though Edinburgh are missing a few big players, they’re a better side than this line suggests. I have Bath winning by 20 and Edinburgh covering the spread.
Pau v Bulls – 20:00 GMT – Stade du Hameau, Pau
What’s on the line: For the Bulls, their participation in European competition this season depends on them at least getting a losing bonus point. In order to qualify for the Round of 16 though, they need a win here, away at a Pau team that have just seen their Champions Cup hopes revived by a win in Llanelli last Saturday. For Pau, a win would see them through, and a loss, even though not guaranteed, would probably see them drop down into the Challenge Cup.
Our Pick: Pau -12.5
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but the Bulls are bad this year. I know they look great on paper, with a star-studded lineup of Springboks, but on the field they have really underperformed. They now travel to a reinvigorated Pau side that have something to play for and should not be underestimated. 12.5 points can feel a little uncomfortable, but Pau are playing good rugby this season and home advantage is very real in these inter-continental clashes.
Saturday 17th January
Sharks v Clermont – 13:00 GMT – Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
What’s on the line: What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object? So technically there are different scenarios that could give us different outcomes, but honestly they’re so remote that I can’t be bothered to tell you about them. The Sharks will win this, in a game that neither side wants to play, and then they’ll drop down to the Challenge Cup. Clermont will cement themselves as the tournaments biggest flop.
Bayonne v Leinster – 15:15 GMT – Stade Jean Dauger, Bayonne
What’s on the line: Leinster have won 29 straight Champions Cup pool stage games. They’ll make it 30 this weekend and will qualify as the top of Pool 3 and claim potentially the 2nd seed, but more likely the 3rd seed. Expect a couple knockout games in Dublin. Bayonne have nothing to play for.
Our pick: Leinster -17.5
I haven’t seen the lineups but you need to check them before betting this. If Bayonne go full strength then I’d stay away from this game altogether. If they pick a weakened side then the line may move, but -17.5 feels a good bet for a hungry Leinster team who want to play as many knockout games as possible in Dublin.
Stormers v Leicester – 15:15 GMT – DHL Stadium, Cape Town
What’s on the line: I like to shoot straight with you. Leicester will lose this game and they will drop down to the Challenge Cup. Which is probably their preferred outcome (the Challenge Cup, not the losing bit). Stormers will want a bonus point win as they aim for better seeding.
Our Pick: Stormers -20.5
The things that Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is going to do to this Leicester team on Saturday would be illegal in most countries. You’re going to need a VPN to watch the highlights of this one.
Oh and if you’re wondering why I’m discounting Leicester, they have one win away from home in the PREM and Champions Cup combined this season. That was against Newcastle Red Bulls. They now face one of the best club teams in the world, on another continent. Just try keep it under 50 so you can enjoy your night out in Cape Town without any guilt.
Toulouse v Sale Sharks – 17:30 GMT – Stade Ernest Wallon, Toulouse
What’s on the line: You know Toulouse could get knocked out in the group stages?! They won’t. But they technically could. They currently sit in a lowly 4th in Pool 1. However they play the 2nd placed Sale at home, with an opportunity to leapfrog them. They’ll then hope that Glasgow can beat Saracens, without the latter claiming two bonus points, and that should see Toulouse into a home Round of 16. If Saracens can cause some level of upset though, then Dupont’s Galacticos could face spending the entire knockouts on the road.
For Sale, a bonus point would be great, as they’re competing with Saracens, who are a point behind them, for 3rd place in the pool. Two bonus points could even see them finish 2nd.
Munster v Castres – 17:30 GMT – Thomond Park, Limerick
What’s on the line: Now this is another straight shootout, where the winner will guarantee a spot in the Round of 16. The loser will have to wait to see if Toulon can help them out against Gloucester and allow them to slip into the Challenge Cup. If Castres don’t get any points out of this game though, then it’ll be the end of their European adventure for this season.
Gloucester v Toulon – 20:00 GMT – Kingsholm, Gloucester
What’s on the line: Again, both clubs are fighting for their Champions Cup survival here. If Toulon win then the Frenchmen will qualify for the Round of 16 with a home tie, whilst Gloucester will either end up in the Challenge Cup or out altogether. If Gloucester win, then they’ll make it through to the Round of 16 and Toulon will potentially be demoted to their Challenge Cup.
Sunday 18th January
Bristol Bears v Bordeaux Bègles – 13:00 GMT – Ashton Gate, Bristol
What’s on the line: Game of the week right here! I love what Pat Lam and Bristol are doing this season, but now they host the best club side in the world, with a top seeding on the line. These teams have scored 285 points between them through the first 3 rounds so this should be a fun watch.
The winner will probably secure a top 2 seeding, meaning a possible home country semifinal, should they make it that far. Bordeaux will definitely get that top 2 seeding with a win. The thing that’s so important about this one though, is that the loser could potentially end up dropping down to 3rd in Pool 4, meaning playing the entirety of their knockout journey on the road.
Our Pick: Bordeaux -5.5
I’m really high on the Bears right now so I feel terrible suggesting betting against them. But their also weirdly not that much better at home than they are away, so the whole home advantage thing isn’t a massive deal here. The main element to this though, is that Bordeaux are the best club team in the world. If Bears can keep it one score that would actually be a great result for them.
Northampton Saints v Scarlets – 15:15 GMT – Franklin’s Gardens, Northampton
What’s on the line: You might have noticed in the above game’s preview, I made the assumption that Northampton will beat the Scarlets. I think it’s a fair assumption. For the Saints, there’s a chance a win and a bonus point won’t be enough to jump Bristol or Bordeaux for 2nd seed, but they likely would. So for them, a home tie in the next round is what’s on the line.
For the Scarlets, they are in a battle with the Bulls to claim that 5th place and drop down to the Challenge Cup. Both sides have 2 points but the Scarlets have a better points difference by 31.
Our Pick: Scarlets +34.5
Sam Costellow is back for the Scarlets. I can’t tell you how important the young fly half is for this side. Saints will be missing a couple players, like Fin Smith and Furbank. But what I’m betting on is that the bookies have underestimated the Scarlets here because they don’t realise how much of an upgrade getting Costellow back is. He’s a very underappreciated rugby player and he gets them functioning a lot better than Hawkins does when he wears the 10 shirt.
La Rochelle v Harlequins – 15:15 GMT – Stade Marcel Deflandre, La Rochelle
What’s on the line: Can I just go ahead and pencil in a La Rochelle win? To be honest, the results in Pool 3 are so predictable this week that there’s almost no jeopardy. Leinster, Stormers and La Rochelle will all win their games and Pool 3 will finish with Leinster, Stormers, Harlequins and La Rochelle qualifying in that order. Then Leicester will drop into the Challenge Cup.
Our Pick: La Rochelle -23.5
This is a tough place to go play and La Rochelle have been much better than their results would suggest in this tournament. Drawing away fixtures in Cape Town and Dublin was brutal. They sent the B team to South Africa, but then they really should have beaten Leinster last weekend (how do you drop the ball up 2 with 40secs left?!?). Harlequins have been really poor this season when they haven’t faced their opponent’s second-string teams. La Rochelle winning comfortably is the play.
Glasgow Warriors v Saracens – 17:30 GMT – Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
What’s on the line: Glasgow have been perfect this Champions Cup season so far, claiming a maximum 15 points. If they continue that against Saracens then they’ll secure a highly coveted top 2 seed. A loss would see them still top the group, unless Sarries beat them 5-0 on table points, so they’re in a pretty good spot.
For the North Londoners, they’ll secure a home Round 16 tie with a win and loss will send them on the road. They’ve effectively qualified for the knockouts though.
Our Pick: Glasgow -8.5
Saracens really impressed me last week. That was a hell of a win. But Glasgow have impressed me all season. Enough that I ranked them 2nd in our Champions Cup Power Rankings this week. 8.5 points is attractive enough for a team I really rate, with something valuable on the line, playing at home. I’m taking the Scots here in this cross-border clash.