With just one more round to go in the pool stages of this year’s Champions Cup, we now have a pretty clear picture of where every team stands heading towards the knockouts. We’ve seen both predictable romps and upsets this week. Saracens toppled Toulouse! A result that has truly thrown the cat amongst the pigeons as now we have one of the giants of the competition dropping down the seedings and prepping to run a gauntlet of elite sides in the knockouts. With their loss, the favourites tier of these power rankings has been left with just one side, Bordeaux, the defending champions and the clear team to beat.
So, can the chasing pack catch up with the French sensations? We’ll have to wait until April to find out, but for now we have a likely 16 teams set for the round of 16. Next weekend we’ll finalise the seedings and find out who will be facing who in the next round. For now, let’s assess not where they are in the standing, but how they really stack up against each other. Who are really the best teams?
The Favourites
I feel pretty confident that the winner will come from one of these teams.
1. Bordeaux (15pts)
Round 3 result: Beat Northampton 50-28
Previous ranking: 1↔
A lot was made of Bordeaux’s showdown with Northampton this weekend, a repeat of last year’s final. In the end, Bordeaux, as we ought to have predicted, were too strong for their English rivals. The defending champs march on and now face a trip to Bristol with a top seeding in their sights and a path to the final that will have to go through the famous French winemaking region.
The Contenders
Whilst they are unlikely to usurp the favourites, these teams do have a genuine chance to win the competition.
2. Glasgow (15pts)
Round 3 result: Won away at Clermont Auvergne 33-21
Previous ranking: 5↑
Do not sleep on Glasgow! They’ve been excellent this season, with just 2 losses in all competitions and they look set to claim a top two seeding. They’ll be playing at home through the knockout stages and for a team of this quality, they’ll back themselves to beat any opposition thrown at them. They are now very much a legit contender.
3. Toulouse (7pts)
Round 3 result: Lost away at Saracens 20-14
Previous ranking: 2↓
Oh Toulouse, what have you done. This has not been the start to the Champions Cup that the 6-time winners would have wanted, losing both their away pool stage fixtures. Fortunately for them, they are in a weaker pool and still have the chance to secure a 2nd place pool finish, giving them a home tie in the round of 16. The problem is they look to be on a collision course with Bordeaux for the quarterfinals. I’m still putting Toulouse as a top 3 contender because they are just so good, and they have Dupont, but they’ve made this a lot harder than it needed to be for themselves.
4. Leinster (14pts)
Round 3 result: Beat La Rochelle 25-24
Previous ranking: 4↔
This is not the Leinster of the last few years. They absolutely have fallen off from their peak. However this is still a strong team and we’ve started to see them return closer to their usual selves these last few weeks. Their streak of pool stage Champions Cup wins has grown to 29, and so they’ll claim a high seeding and play a lot of these knockouts in Dublin. If they want to win this competition though, they need to improve.
Semi Final Hopefuls
I don’t think these teams can win the Champions Cup but they are good enough to make a semifinal provided they avoid a knockout fixture with one of the major contenders.
5. Stormers (9pts)
Round 3 result: Lost away at Harlequins 61-10
Previous ranking: 3↓
The unbeaten streak is over. It does almost show the hilarity of the Champions Cup format that Europe and Africa’s last unbeaten team this season was beaten by 50 points by a team that’s really struggling domestically. It’s a real shame though that the Stormers sent the B team to London this week because now they’re likely out of the running for a top 4 seed and so will need to win 3 games in Europe in order to lift the trophy. For that reason I’ve dropped them down the rankings, but they’re still one of the best club teams in the world right now.
6. Bath (11pts)
Round 3 result: Won away at Castres 43-20
Previous ranking: 7↑
They got the win away in France, claiming a bonus point and putting themselves in pole position for home round of 16 and quarterfinal clashes. They’ve lost their cloak of invincibility in the PREM of late, however they still have the quality to go far in this competition. I think they’ll make a semi-final but will meet their match there.
7. Toulon (9pts)
Round 3 result: Beat Munster 27-25
Previous ranking: 6↓
Toulon have now beaten both Munster and Bath at the Stade Mayol over the past two rounds. Those are good victories, against good clubs. Toulon have a lot of talent in their squad and they are one of the premier teams in Europe. They’ll really be regretting their opening round loss to Edinburgh when they have to travel away in a quarter-final.
8. Northampton (11pts)
Round 3 result: Lost away at Bordeaux 50-28
Previous ranking: 8↔
Northampton have had a great start to the season, coming into this weekend they were top of the PREM and sitting pretty on a maximum 10 pts in the Champions Cup. Bordeaux however have handed them a reality check. They took on the best club team in the world in their own back yard and now we can see there is still a lot of improvement needed for Saints to truly challenge against the best in this competition.
Quarter Final Hopefuls
These teams may make a semifinal if they get a favourable draw, although if they come up against a top side, I don’t think they have the firepower to make it to the latter stages of the Champions Cup.
9. La Rochelle (6pts)
Round 3 result: Lost away at Leinster 25-24
Previous ranking: 9↔
I would like to put La Rochelle higher than 9th but they’ve had a tough slate of fixtures with Stormers and Leinster away, and after losing both they’re going to have to battle on the road in the knockouts. That brings down their ranking, but this is probably a top 6 or 7 team in Europe. They could have beaten Leinster in the Aviva this weekend and should frighten any team that has to face them in the knockouts.
10. Munster (6pts)
Round 3 result: Lost away at Toulon 27-25
Previous ranking: 10↔
Tough loss against a very strong opponent this week. Munster have a chance to book a spot in the knockouts though if they can get a win at home to Castres. They have so much pedigree in this tournament and they know how to play knockout rugby. They have the opportunity to throw an upset or two into the mix come April.
11. Bristol Bears (14pts)
Round 3 result: Won at the Bulls 61-49
Previous ranking: 12↑
Have you got your breath back?! What a game that was in Pretoria this weekend. Bristol had 42 points on the board in the opening 26 minutes! As bonkers as that game was, and as much as the Bulls have their own issues right now, that was a very impressive result for the Bears. Very few away teams win in that stadium. Next up they face the insatiable Bordeaux at Ashton Gate. This will be an excellent litmus test to see where Pat Lam’s men really are.
12. Saracens (10pts)
Round 3 result: Beat Toulouse 20-14
Previous ranking: 11↓
This has got to be the result of the weekend. Whilst Saracens winning at home should never come as a surprise, the upper echelon of European teams have accelerated away from the rest in recent years. That is until Saracens pulled back high-flying Toulouse and topped them in North London. I don’t know how I’ve managed to drop the team that recorded the result of the weekend down in these rankings, but their recent showings in the PREM have raised some cause for concern. They now travel to our number 2 ranked side, Glasgow. Let’s see how they get on up there.
Hoping to Make the Knockouts
These teams won’t have high expectations to compete seriously in this competition but will know that two wins can see them get to the round of 16.
13. Pau (5pts)
Round 3 result: Beat the Scarlets 47-38
Previous ranking: 23↑
Well don’t I feel like a fool now. After the last round I had the 2nd placed team in the Top 14 ranked as the 2nd worst team in the competition. Mostly because they had nil pois from the first two rounds and looked like they could be waving the white flag. That was not the case though and after claiming a maximum 5 points against the Scarlets, they now have a chance to add another 5 points next week at home to the struggling Bulls. Suddenly Pau are right back in the frame for the knockouts and are not a team you’d want to draw.
14. Edinburgh (10pts)
Round 3 result: Beat Gloucester 26-24
Previous ranking: 13↓
That was closer than it probably should have been. Gloucester have not been great in the PREM this season, particularly on the road. Edinburgh made hard work of that. Edinburgh have been a solid team this season in the URC and Champions Cup. They’ll likely make the Round of 16 although I think it’ll be hard for them to progress beyond there.
15. Sale (11pts)
Round 3 result: Beat the Sharks 26-10
Previous ranking: 15↔
In the battle of the Sharks, it’s the Northerners that have the bragging rights. Let’s be honest though, their South African counterparts sent a B team. This result was the bare minimum they could have got from the game. Sale have qualified for the last 16, but I can’t see them winning a knockout game.
16. Harlequins (11pts)
Round 3 result: Beat the Stormers 61-10
Previous ranking: 21↑
They may be struggling in the PREM but in the Champions Cup they have put away to teams that sent their B teams to the Stoop, and sit in a favourable position to make the round of 16. That’s why they are 16th in these rankings, because they’ll make the knockouts. It is not because they are the 16th best side, because they are not. They’re probably closer to around 22nd.
All But Eliminated
These teams aren’t technically eliminated but it would be surprise to see them make the knockouts.
17. Leicester (5pts)
Round 3 result: Beat Bayonne 57-14
Previous ranking: 18↑
Losing at home is rarely a positive night, although Leicester were impressively competitive in this one. My particular highlight of the game was Adam Radwan showing perfect footballing skills to dribble the ball down the field for an 80-meter breakaway try. Having players that can make something out of nothing to give you quick tries is so valuable to a team. Leicester lose valiantly and move one place up in these rankings.
18. Sharks (5pts)
Round 3 result: Lost away at Sale 26-10
Previous ranking: 16↓
Not really much to say here, the Sharks sent a 2nd team, lost predictably and now look have been eliminated. Not the worst result though, they’ll drop down to the Challenge Cup and will have a chance to salvage something from what has been a tricky season so far.
19. Gloucester (6pts)
Round 3 result: Lost away at Edinburgh 26-24
Previous ranking: 20↑
To be fair to Gloucester, they made a game of that against Edinburgh. I don’t think many saw them being as competitive as they were. Looking past the results, there is some good rugby be played in Gloucester, they just aren’t good enough across the 80mins to beat the better teams. They’ll hope now to get another chance for a Challenge Cup run.
20. Castres (5pts)
Round 3 result: Lost to Bath 43-20
Previous ranking: 17↓
So Castres can still make the round of 16, but it requires winning away at Munster next weekend in a win-and-in fixture. I can’t really see this team topping the Irish heavyweights. Stranger things have happened though.
21. Bulls (2pts)
Round 3 result: Lost to Bristol Bears 61-49
Previous ranking: 14↓
The Bulls are not good right now. I don’t know what’s gone wrong for them but they are all over the place at the moment. Their team has far too much talent to be underperforming like this, but they now face a trip to Pau and I’d be surprised if they sent their best team.
22. Scarlets (2pts)
Round 3 result: Lost to Pau 47-38
Previous ranking: 22↔
That game was so winnable for the Scarlets. They just lack that power over 80 minutes in the front 5. Too many errors from a team that looks like they could really use the return of fly-half Sam Costellow. Hawkins is a great 12 and doing a solid job at 10, but they need an out-and-out fly half who can boss the show like Costellow can.
23. ASM Clermont Auvergne (0pts)
Round 3 result: Lost to Glasgow 33-21
Previous ranking: 19↓
Has there been a bigger disappointment in this year’s tournament than Clermont Auvergne? French teams are meant to be impenetrable at home. That has not been the case for the once great Champions Cup contenders.
24. Bayonne (0pts)
Round 3 result: Lost away at Leicester 57-14
Previous ranking: 24↔
Just 11 more days now until the Top 14 returns.