So last week in our preview for the Champions Cup fixtures I wrote a whole spiel about how the Champions Cup was seeing increasingly more one-sided results, and that as such it was safe to bet on big favourites winning by wide margins. Well, both the picks we made on big favourites (Bordeaux and the Stormers) failed. Although on the positive side, we correctly called the Sharks and Toulon to win and cover, leaving us 2-2 on the weekend.
This week we’re back to the URC and PREM and getting into the first of the festive derbies. We’ve got two themes in this weekend’s picks. The first is betting on away underdogs in derby games to keep it tight and cover the spread. The second theme is for stronger sides to spoil the party and win away from home against struggling sides in packed out stadiums. I’ll admit, I feel a little nervous about these picks, purely because I’ve just picked 4 away teams when I usually like the advantage playing at home brings. However this is the time of year where we get into the derbies and big fixtures. Where effort levels just rise that little bit and games get tighter. It’s the time of year for upsets and close games, and we’ll be hoping for some of those this weekend. So let’s see who we like this week against the spread.
For context, against the spread betting is a wager on a team’s margin of victory or defeat, not just the final outcome of the game. To win, the favoured team must win by more than the specified point spread (which will be a negative number), while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread (positive number).
Leinster v Ulster – 19:45 (GMT) Friday 19th December
Our pick: Ulster +10.5
Ulster have been brilliant this season. They’ve started really well, winning 5 of 7 in all competitions. Their only losses coming away against the Lions and a narrow loss away at Cardiff last week. Now they travel to the Aviva stadium with a full-strength side, boosted by a first start for Wallaby prop Angus Bell. Meanwhile Leinster, following two weeks of Champions Cup rugby, are playing a slightly rotated side. Still with plenty of quality, however it’s not the strongest team they could put out. Leinster generally have been poor this season, underwhelming against expectations in almost every fixture. Here we get 10 points on the side in better form. Even though they are on the road I actually think this could be a winnable game for Ulster and I kind of like the look of Ulster to win at 3/1. Either way I’m rocking with the underdog here in this Irish clash. Ulster to keep it close and cover the +10.5 in a one-score game.
Cardiff v Scarlets – 19:45 (GMT) Friday 19th December
Our pick: Scarlets +7.5 (8/13 alternative line)
So I came into this one thinking I wanted to bet on the Scarlets, not to beat Cardiff, but to cover the spread. The Scarlets have been considerably better in their last 3 games after the November international break than the period before. Cardiff have had a great start to the season and sit in 2nd in the URC. Although Cardiff haven’t been blowing away their opponents. Many of their games have been tight and nervy. I still believe the winning habit of the blue and blacks will see them over the line in this derby, although I think it’ll be a close affair with just one score in it. The bookies have the line at +/- 5.5 and I just don’t quite have the conviction for that. Tightening the odds but getting that extra 2 points protection feels a better play here. The only other option I would just throw out there is a combo of Cardiff -1.5 and Scarlets +7.5, coming in at 4/1. It feels like the kind of derby game that will come down to a kick at the end.
Harlequins v Bristol Bears – 17:30 (GMT) Saturday 20th December
Our pick: Bristol Bears +3.5
In this year’s Big Game at Twickenham, Harlequins host a Bears side that has won 6 of 8 games in the PREM and Europe combined this season. Meanwhile Quins have mustered just 3 wins from their 8 fixtures. Whilst a rule of thumb in the PREM is that the home team usually wins, I wonder whether Bristol might just be too strong for the Southwest London club. Both teams should be right up for it, playing in front of a big crowd at the home of English rugby. It will almost certainly be an open and expansive game, with both sides looking to attack. Although I feel Bristol have been more sensible and calculated this season than the all-out attacking approach that we’ve become accustomed to with them. They’ve been able to win games this year even with extensive injury lists, and now that they are getting closer to full health as a squad, they should have the quality to win games like this. I see it as close to a 50/50 game so with Bristol getting 3.5 points, I like that side of the line.
Sharks v Bulls – 16:00 (GMT) Saturday 20th December
Our pick: Bulls -2.5
First of all I want to point out that the Sharks have managed to sellout the 52,000 seater Kings Park for this fixture, being dubbed Sharksfest. That’s an awesome achievement for the club and the atmosphere is going to be absolutely popping on Saturday in Durban. I’m really excited for this game as the Sharks really need to start registering some wins in the URC to get their season back on track. They have just the 1 win in the league this season. The Bulls on the other hand are in a respectable 8th with 3 wins and 3 losses. This is an incredibly winnable game for them, against a Sharks side that have been poor this season. If the Bulls want to propel themselves into the top 4 with the goal of playing home knockout games at the end of the season, these are the types of games that they need to win.
Personally, I trust the Bulls so much more at this point. Whilst I can absolutely see the Sharks pulling off a win, drawing from the energy in the crowd, I just think the Bulls are much better right now. That’s why I like the Bulls to win this one and cover.