We’re now halfway through the group stages of the Champions Cup and every team has played one home game and one away match. Whilst everyone is still very much in with a shot to make the knockouts, we are starting to get an idea of who the real contenders could be come the later stages.
Six teams remain undefeated and six are still winless. The race for home field advantage in the knockout stages is hotting up. Of course much of the talk this weekend has been about the number of teams sending weakened sides for their away fixtures. Although we’ve also seen a couple of big upsets and some great games this week.
Now we’ve seen another round of fixtures, we have updated our Investec Champions Cup power rankings. We have also split the rankings up into tiers based on what we believe each of the teams capable of in this competition.
We’ll be updating our rankings following every round of Champions Cup action this season.
The Favourites
I feel pretty confident that the winner will come from one of these teams.
1 Bordeaux (10pts)
Round 2 result: Beat the Scarlets 50-21
Round 2 ranking: 2↑
Scoring a maximum 10 points from their first two games, the defending champs look insatiable so far. Their victory against the Scarlets this week went as expected, although the win away in Pretoria in round 1 was really impressive. Bordeaux take our top spot.
2 Toulouse (6pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at Glasgow 28-21
Round 2 ranking: 1↓
This was one of the surprises of the week, the mighty Toulouse losing in Glasgow after holding a 21-0 lead. Losing in that manner, after holding such a comfortable lead is certainly disappointing, although I’m not losing faith with the 6-time champions. They are still a top 2 side, although that loss might force them to play away in a semi-final.
The Contenders
Whilst they are unlikely to usurp the favourites, these teams do have a genuine chance to win the competition.
3 Stormers (9pts)
Round 2 result: Beat La Rochelle 42-21
Round 2 ranking: 4↑
It wasn’t the most representative game, with La Rochelle missing a lot of their best players. However the Stormers still got the job done to keep their perfect record this season intact. I still have concerns that this team would need to win twice in Europe to lift the trophy, but they are playing so well that they deserve to be in the contender’s tier.
4 Leinster (9pts)
Round 2 result: Won away at Leicester 23-15
Round 2 ranking: 3↓
Yet another pool stage win for Leinster in this competition – that’s 28 in a row now. Although they certainly don’t look like the elite team we’re used to seeing. If you were basing these rankings purely on this season’s performances, Leinster would certainly not be this high. However I still back them to keep winning and they have the squad depth to be competitive later in the season. They have to start playing better rugby though.
Semi Final Hopefuls
I don’t think these teams can win the Champions Cup but they are good enough to make a semifinal provided they avoid a knockout fixture with one of the major contenders.
5 Glasgow (10pts)
Round 2 result: Beat Toulouse 28-21
Round 2 ranking: 8↑
What a result! Sitting 21 points down at half time, Glasgow’s fans would have been feeling pretty frightened about what the final score could look like. However they showed the resilience of this team to score 28 unanswered points on their way to beating one of Europe’s elite. If they can win that game, then it’s fair to say they have a high ceiling in this competition.
6 Toulon (5pts)
Round 2 result: Beat Bath 45-34
Round 2 ranking: 6↔
Maybe I was overplaying it, although I felt this Toulon v Bath game was huge for both sides going into this weekend. Toulon got the job done and they are now very much back on track. This is a very strong team, with a lot of talent and they certainly could win some knockout games. They can’t afford too many more results like their round 1 loss to Edinburgh, but they have the talent to contend with the best.
7 Bath (6pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at Toulon 45-34
Round 2 ranking: 5↓
This was Bath’s toughest test of the season and they came up short. I’m still high on this Bath team, but they are still not quite in that top tier of European clubs just yet. At home I think they can beat anyone, although they aren’t quite good enough to win away against the top sides.
8 Northampton (10pts)
Round 2 result: Beat the Bulls 50-5
Round 2 ranking: 12↑
Another somewhat irrelevant fixture after the Bulls sent their B team to the Midlands. Northampton are sitting pretty though on a perfect 10 points so far, and they will likely end up playing a Round 16 game, and if they win that a quarter-final, at Franklin’s Gardens. With the quality in their team and the experience of winning the PREM and making a Champions Cup final over the past two seasons, you wouldn’t rule this team out from making another semi-final.
Quarter Final Hopefuls
These teams may make a semifinal if they get a favourable draw, although if they come up against a top side, I don’t think they have the firepower to make it to the latter stages of the Champions Cup.
9 La Rochelle (5pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at the Stormers 42-21
Round 2 ranking: 7↓
I would have loved to see a full strength La Rochelle team take on the Stormers, but it wasn’t to be. I don’t blame them. We all want to see the best versus the best each week, but the clubs also need to do what’s best for them and resting players for tough games with low upside is perfectly reasonable. As a result, we didn’t learn much about La Rochelle this week but we know they are a strong side and belong in the top 10.
10 Munster (5pts)
Round 2 result: Beat Gloucester 31-3
Round 2 ranking: 9↓
Munster got back on track with a comfortable win this week against Gloucester. This team will be there or there abouts come the knockouts and you would not like to play against them. They’re always strong in this competition.
11 Saracens (6pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at the Sharks 28-23
Round 2 ranking: 11↔
Honestly a pretty decent showing from Saracens, despite the loss. The Sharks have been poor this year but going out to South Africa is incredibly tough, so being competitive should be commended. Sarries rotated their squad as well, giving some young players an opportunity. They’ll learn a lot from the trip and will look to get back to winning ways when they’re back in North London.
12 Bristol Bears (9pts)
Round 2 result: Beat Pau 61-12
Round 2 ranking: 14↑
A big win against a weakened Pau side was the perfect follow up to beating the Scarlets last week. Bristol have had a pretty good start to the season, especially with such an extensive injury list. When they get the likes of Harry Randall and Steven Luatua back, they’ll be a dark horse team to watch in the next few rounds of the Champions Cup.
Hoping to Make the Knockouts
These teams won’t have high expectations to compete seriously in this competition but will know that two wins can see them get to the round of 16.
13 Edinburgh (5pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at Castres 33-0
Round 2 ranking: 13↔
Losing 33-0 is not a great result. It’s pretty bad actually. Although they’ll still be happy with the 5 points they’ve picked up over the first two rounds. Edinburgh have been a solid team this season in the URC and Champions Cup. They’ll likely make the Round of 16 although I think it’ll be hard for them to progress beyond there.
14 Bulls (1pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at Northampton 50-5
Round 2 ranking: 10↓
Sent a B team to Northampton so not much to read into this game. Although they now have a tough situation where they really need pull their socks up in the final 2 rounds of the group stages if they want to progress. This team is better than their 14th placed ranking here, although even if they do make the knockouts, they’ll have to play away in Europe and so they’re in a tricky spot in this competition.
15 Sale (6pts)
Round 2 result: Won away at Clermont 35-14
Round 2 ranking: 20↑
This was arguably the result of the weekend. It was far from a weakened side that Sale sent to Auvergne, although it was without a couple of their best players. The players that did take the field though gave the club a memorable win away in France. Something that is just so hard to do. Suddenly, after losing at home to Glasgow, Sale are right back in the race for the knockouts.
16 Sharks (5pts)
Round 2 result: Beat Saracens 28-23
Round 2 ranking: 15↓
The Sharks really needed this win. They’ve had a really rough start to this season and they will hope that their Springbok stars coming back from international duties to see off Saracens, can be the spark that get’s them back on track. They still aren’t a great side though and I may be being a bit generous putting them as high as 16 here.
17 Castres (5pts)
Round 2 result: Beat Edinburgh 33-0
Round 2 ranking: 17↔
It feels harsh to not move a team up the rankings if they’ve just won 33-0. Although I’ve also got teams that lost this week moving up the rankings, and teams that won moving down. Castres needed this win because they next host Bath before travelling to Munster. A tough couple fixtures as they look to sneak into the knockouts.
18 Leicester (0pts)
Round 2 result: Lost to Leinster 23-15
Round 2 ranking: 19↑
Losing at home is rarely a positive night, although Leicester were impressively competitive in this one. My particular highlight of the game was Adam Radwan showing perfect footballing skills to dribble the ball down the field for an 80-meter breakaway try. Having players that can make something out of nothing to give you quick tries is so valuable to a team. Leicester lose valiantly and move one place up in these rankings.
19 ASM Clermont Auvergne (0pts)
Round 2 result: Lost to Sale 35-14
Round 2 ranking: 16↓
Maybe I’m being quite generous to Clermont Auvergne by not putting them further down these rankings. Losing at home to a rotated Sale team is simply unacceptable, and it’s not even like it was close. Clermont have a lot to do now if a historical powerhouse of this competition wants to progress beyond the pool stages.
20 Gloucester (5pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at Munster 31-3
Round 2 ranking: 18↓
This was an opportunity for George Skivington to give some of his top players a rest as the Cherry and Whites visited Cork. They weren’t able to really compete with the Irish province, but they still have 5 points in the bag from round 1.
21 Harlequins (6pts)
Round 2 result: Beat Bayonne 68-14
Round 2 ranking: 21↔
Dominant performance from the Quins against a weakened Bayonne side. They gave their fans some great rugby to watch and took home the maximum points, to supplement the try bonus point they secured last week. Still an uphill battle for them to make the knockouts but they’ll be happy with the return they’ve got from the opening two rounds.
22 Scarlets (1pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away to Bordeaux 50-21
Round 2 ranking: 22↔
I’m definitely not a fan of feeling positive about a team that’s just shipped 50 points, although the Scarlets put up a decent effort against the team we view as the best in Europe. They’ve certainly turned their season around after a rough start, and the last three weeks have looked a lot more like the side that made the URC playoffs a season ago. Although they would need to pull off a minor miracle to make the Round of 16 from here.
23 Pau (0pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at Bristol 61-12
Round 2 ranking: 23↔
Like I suggested last week, they waved the white flag in this one. The interesting thing though is that they have a trip to the Scarlets in round 3, which is a winnable game for them. Then they host the Bulls, who could send a B team. So we certainly could see this team notch two wins and fly up the rankings.
24 Bayonne (0pts)
Round 2 result: Lost away at Harlequins 68-14
Round 2 ranking: 24↔
Unlike Pau, this team have a rough couple fixtures in the next two rounds. Leicester away followed by Leinster at home. They could end up not registering a point in the Champions Cup table this season.