This weekend we have Round 2 of the Champions Cup, as teams that won last week aim to secure a spot in the knockouts with another win, and teams that lost look to get back on track.
Usually I don’t like to bet on big favourites against the spread. When it gets to lines like -25 or as much as -35 it always makes me a little nervous that all you need is for the underdog to score a few tries in a loose game to ruin your bet. However this week there are a couple of big favourites that seem the most attractive lines. So I thought I’d have a look at some of last year’s Champions Cup results to see whether betting on the big dogs was a dangerous or smart decision.
What I found has basically affirmed that this current competition format is a total waste of time and the Champions Cup needs major rethinking if it wants to have any place in the modern calendar – I’ll be going into more detail on that in an article soon – but we kind of all know that. In terms of whether big winning margins are likely to happen in games, the answer is yes. The Champions Cup has seen a lot of one-sided contests recently.
Last season there were 48 matches played in the group stages. Of those 48, the average margin of victory was 20.7 points. There were an equal number of games decided by 1 score (7 points or fewer) as there were games with a margin of victory over 35 points (10 games each).
Round 1 of the competition this year followed that same pattern, with an average margin of victory of 17.1, slightly lower than any round last year. That included 2 one-score games and 2 games with margins of 35+. More than half the games have been decided by more than 14 points.
In conclusion, it’s reasonable to expect that 1 in 5 games will be big blowouts, and another 1 in 5 will be tight. So as we look ahead to this weekend’s matchups, unfortunately I wouldn’t be too hopeful of getting many competitive games. Either way, let’s get into the picks and see who we like against the spread.
For context, against the spread betting is a wager on a team’s margin of victory or defeat, not just the final outcome of the game. To win, the favoured team must win by more than the specified point spread (which will be a negative number), while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread (positive number).
Stormers v La Rochelle – 13:00 (GMT) Saturday 13th December
Our pick: Stormers -27.5
Two years ago, La Rochelle travelled down to Cape Town with a full-strength side and pushed the Stormers all the way, eventually losing by a single point. This year will not be the same. La Rochelle will be sending a significantly weaker version of their side to play the URC table toppers. Not only will they be missing most of their first-choice players, through either injury or just taking this as a chance to rest them, but they’ll also be without the presence of head coach Ronan O’Gara on the sidelines. He’s currently serving a ban for getting into yet another altercation with a referee.
Meanwhile the Stormers are putting out a close to full strength side and I just can’t see the French backups living with the dynamism of the South African team. This could be heavy one-way traffic, so this feels like one of those 1 in 5 games that are decided by 35+ points.
Bordeaux v Scarlets – 17:30 (GMT) Saturday 13th December
Our pick: Bordeaux -38
If 1 in 5 games are going to have a points difference of 35+, then the high scoring defending champions going up against one of the competition’s weakest sides, at home, feels like a safe bet to be in that 1 in 5. The Scarlets have been so much better in the past 2 weeks at Parc y Scarlets than in their first 4 games of the season. Although this is a different beast. They are going to get physically outmuscled by a much stronger Bordeaux pack, then the electric pace of the Bordelais backline is going to be a nightmare to contain. I expect Bordeaux to win by 45+ here.
Sharks v Saracens – 15:15 (GMT) Saturday 13th December
Our pick: Sharks -1.5
So the Sharks have not been great this season. In fact they’ve been one of the worst teams in the URC, and as a result have made a change at head coach with JP Pietersen taking over from John Plumtree. There’s certainly some risk in backing an underperforming side, but with a number of their Springbok stars back, you would hope for an uplift in performance. Saracens on the flip side are travelling to Durban with a rotated team. Sure, there are still a few starters in there, although they are not going full strength. It’s just so hard to win away in South Africa when you’re fulling firing, let alone without a couple of your best players, that I’m backing the Sharks to win by 2 scores here.
Toulon v Bath – 15:15 (GMT) Sunday 14th December
Our pick: Toulon -1.5
This is the game of the weekend. Two evenly matched teams with a lot on the line. For Toulon, they’ll be hurting after losing away in Edinburgh last week. They are a top side, that would have ambitions potentially of winning this tournament. After losing in Round 1, it is essential they get back on track with a victory at home. Otherwise they will have to resign themselves to away games in the knockout stages.
For Bath, this is an opportunity to show us all that they are a serious contender for the title. However if they are going to win it all, they will need to get a top seeding to secure home advantage in the quarterfinals, and probably the semifinals too. A win away at Toulon would do a lot to make that possible. A loss, and they may be looking at an away trip to Dublin, Bordeaux or Toulouse in the Spring.
I’ve gone back and forth on how I see this one going. I think Bath are absolutely brilliant at the moment. However this is a much tougher challenge than anything they’ve faced this year. Honestly it’s their loss away at Leicester in October that just makes me sceptical that they will win at the Stade Mayol. I’m taking Toulon to win and cover at home.