This is it, 24 weekends of racing and it all comes down to the last race. Will we have a repeat of 4 years ago and it all come down to the final lap? Whatever happens, Formula 1 has an ability to be unpredictable. At any moment something dramatic can happen and turn a race, or a season, on its head. Of course the dramatic doesn’t always materialise and there’s a good chance we watch our three title protagonists qualify in the top 3 spots and then proceed to drive around for 58 laps with no overtakes, no incidents and just provide a procession of tyre management, interspersed with some fuel saving.
That’s what Norris will hope for at least, as the Briton just needs a podium to secure his first World Championship. If somehow a Mercedes, or perhaps a Ferrari – wouldn’t this be a crazy time for Hamilton to get his first podium for the Scuderia – can usurp Norris for a spot in the top 3, then Norris will have to finish in the top 5 and hope Piastri beats Verstappen for the win.
Before you ask, yes, I’m ruling out the prospect of anyone outside of the 3 title contenders winning this race. Although this would be a hilarious moment for Yuki Tsunoda to figure out how to extract the full potential of his Red Bull. I just can’t believe that in a moment as big as this, someone else would be able to topple these three drivers and their superior cars.
The one thing history tells us is to expect the unexpected. We had it 4 years ago in the last final day title fight, and we had it 15 years ago when a young Sebastian Vettel went into the final race sitting in 3rd place in the Championship, and came out of it with the first of what would become 4 world titles.
At the bottom of this article I will make two predictions for this race. The first is what I think will happen and the second is what I think I think will happen. Don’t worry, I’ll explain it. First though, let’s take a look at some of the betting lines and which ones stand out.
I won’t be recommending any bets here, what I will do is highlight a few bets that I think look interesting and provide a little commentary and thoughts on them.
Max Verstappen to win the race – 5/4
We’ve said Max should be the favourite for the last two races and he won both of them. Last week he needed a bit of luck to beat the quicker Oscar Piastri. Had McLaren pitted the Australian driver on lap 7 under the safety car then it’s highly likely that Max would have had to settle for 2nd. It’s all part of what you’re buying though when you bet on Max Verstappen. He’s obviously the best driver and his car is quick, but between Max and the Red Bull strategists and pit crew, you are getting the most clinical and reliable team on the grid. If you give them an opportunity, they’ll take it.
The NFL has a phrase for the approach some coaches choose to take in the crucial moments. When they really need a few yards for a first down, or really need to score a touchdown on a play, some coaches believe in players, not plays. The concept being that rather than calling what you think is your best play, you give the ball to your best player. If we’re choosing who to back in a title decider, I’m going driver, not car.
So who’s the best driver? Who’s the one that’s been here before and delivered? Who’s the one that is immune to pressure? It’s Max Verstappen. He can’t stop Lando finishing on the podium and beating him to the title. But he can do everything possible to give himself the best chance of winning a 5th straight. At better than evens odds, I’d go players, not plays.
Oscar Piastri to win the race – 10/3
I know I’ve just said rock with Max but I also want to highlight this line as well. Slightly better than 3/1 odds for a driver that was quickest throughout the whole weekend in Qatar and probably has the quickest car. I’d almost given up on backing Piastri but his show of strength last weekend has given me the confidence to get back on the Aussie’s bandwagon. I do believe in his talent and I believe he has the temperament and mentality of a world champion. Outside of the weird 5 race stretch where he threw this title away, he’s been nothing but a winner his entire career.
I basically think either Max or Piastri will win the race on Sunday. Norris doesn’t need to win it to claim the title so he won’t take any risks, especially if he has to go wheel to wheel. I’m also not sure he’ll have the pace to beat the other two regardless. So if this is a two-horse race, Piastri at 10/3 is an attractive offer.
Lando Norris to finish 3rd – 10/3
He would have finished 3rd last week if it wasn’t for the McLaren strategy blunder. This week all he needs to do is finish 3rd and the Championship is his. Will he really push as hard as Piastri and Verstappen in Q3 knowing that he just needs to finish 3rd? A mistake in qualifying could mean starting down in P6 or P7 and taking on the pressure of having to make those overtakes. On Sunday, will he want to fight hard if one of his rivals throws his car down the inside? Those are the reasons why he might not finish in the top 2, although looking down the grid I just can’t see another car beating the pace of Norris in an incident free race.
Oliver Bearman to finish in the points – 11/10
I loved this bet last week as the young Haas driver had scored points 5 races in a row going into Qatar. 33 laps into the race and it was looking good. Then disaster struck and Haas botched his pit stop leading to him dropping almost to the back before eventually retiring the car. He almost certainly would have scored points had that mistake not occurred. Given that, I am not losing faith in the Brit. I’m running it back.
Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points – 7/4
This week it was announced that the lovable Japanese driver will have to make do with a reserve role next season as he loses his seat to Hadjar at Red Bull. One more chance for Yuki Tsunoda to show us what he can do. This is a track that he’s done fairly well at in the past with an impressive 4th place finish there in his rookie season. His last 3 results in Abu Dhabi have been 11th, 8th and 12th. He’s also coming off the back of a points finish in Qatar, even if his 10th place finish was helped by a couple retirements from drivers ahead of him.
This might be our last chance to back a driver who has been one of the most entertaining personalities on the grid for that last 5 seasons. I’m rolling with my guy in his last race for Red Bull (for now).
If you’re really in a Yuki loving mood and want something a little more spicy, then he has 8/1 odds for a top 6 finish. I’m not quite that bold but I thought I’d mention it.
Prediction Time
I was recently reading Ben Solak’s NFL column (which for NFL fans is great by the way) and he introduced me to a concept originally devised by Peter King of thinking of thinking. When I think something, then that is my opinion. When I think I think something, then I haven’t fully come round to believing it and making it my opinion, but I’m thinking about it. It’s basically a way of making bold predictions with all the upside if you’re right and no accountability if you’re wrong. So first I’ll tell you what I think will happen on Sunday, then I’ll tell you what I think I think will happen.
I think that Verstappen will claim victory in Abu Dhabi, with Oscar Piastri in 2nd and Lando holding onto his title in 3rd as none of the other cars have the pace to match the top 3. End result: a super awkward podium in which the guy on the bottom step is beaming from ear to ear and the other 2 look like they’d rather swap their bottles of champagne for bottles of scotch and drown their sorrows. Oh, and if you’re wondering, that combo of finishing positions will give you an 11/1 acca.
I think I think that Verstappen will win the Grand Prix in a race where a safety car around 40 laps in puts McLaren in a horrible bind as they’ve just done their only planned pit stop 10 laps earlier. Meanwhile Hamilton has been running the same set of hards since the start, gets a cheap pit stop under the safety car and his new mediums see him hold on for 3rd place, his first podium since joining Ferrari. Lando is resigned to 4th, Max wins the title and the British F1 media melt down with the conflicting emotions of their two darlings’ opposing fortunes.
As you can imagine, I don’t quite have the conviction to actually think that will happen, hence I only think I think it. The one thing I would say, is that I hope there is some drama and that the title battle goes down to the wire. Whoever wins will have deserved it.