Just when you thought the Championship battle was done and dusted, McLaren go and spice things up with a double DNF. If you’re a McLaren and/or Lando Norris fan then this was a pretty terrible blunder. For everyone else though, this is great! The Driver’s Championship was all but over when Norris added 18 points to his lead on Piastri, with Max all but out of the equation. Now the title race has the potential to go right down to the wire, with defending champion Max Verstappen with a puncher’s chance of keeping hold of his title.
As we head to Qatar, the focus will be on the cars at the front. Plus this week we get the added excitement of a sprint race. There are more fights in the constructor’s championship though, with teams wanting to win that extra prize money. Ferrari are sitting just 13 points behind Red Bull in 3rd. With Tsunoda not bringing many points to the table right now, some strong performances by Ferrari could see them jump their rivals. Further back in the field we have a 3-way battle for 7th place with just 5 points separating Haas, Aston Martin and Sauber. Any points finishes from those teams will be very valuable.
I won’t be recommending any bets here, what I will do is highlight a few bets that I think look interesting and provide a little commentary and thoughts on them.
Max Verstappen to win the Feature Race – 11/10
Last week we affirmed the bookies’ assertion of Max as the favourite, and it turned out just as expected. This week he’s an even stronger favourite and I’d keep backing him. He’s been so consistently excellent the last 5 years and you just know he’ll deliver. In these tense moments, Max is one of the most unflappable humans on the planet. He’s one of the top 5 drivers of all-time, which makes me think of another of the all-time greats, Lewis Hamilton, and what he’d be like in these tight championship battles. Even in two of the Championships he lost, 2016 and 2021, he finished both seasons with 4 straight wins to give himself a chance (technically it was 3 wins in the last 4 in 2021 but you get the point and now we’ll leave that topic). The point is that this is what the greats do. They step up and dominate when they really need to. That’s what I’m backing Verstappen to do.
George Russell to win the Sprint Race – 11/1
They’re long odds for a reason, it does feel right now like two horse races, with Norris and Verstappen. If those guys don’t win for whatever reason though, you back Russell with his form throughout the season to be the man to benefit. He’s put his car on the front row on many occasions this year, and if he can get a lead in the sprint race, he only needs to hold on for 19 laps on one set of tyres. The Mercedes is good enough to do that.
I don’t think his car has the pace for an incident-free victory in the feature race, but it could win a sprint. It’s still unlikely to happen, but if you’re looking for a longer odds punt, I think this is a good one.
Alex Albon/Carlos Sainz to finish in the points for the Feature Race – 5/4
We said last week Williams were due a good result and that we felt Carlos Sainz could be the one to deliver it. That’s just what happened, with the Spaniard finishing an excellent 5th. This week I’m sticking with Williams to bring home points, but this time I think it will be Albon. Honestly, this is just gut feel. But when you get 5/4 odds on Albon and 11/10 for Sainz, I’ll take Alex Albon.
Oliver Bearman to finish in the points in the Feature Race – 1/1
Ollie Bearman’s last 5 race results are 9th, 9th, 4th, 6th and 10th. If he’s finished in the points for 5 races in a row, I think it should be more than evens odds for him to finish in the points this week.