The European adventures are over for now, some teams having thrived, some having struggled, and others having rested up and prepared for a big couple weeks of domestic action before the Six Nations. We’ve reached the halfway point of the season and the storylines for each of the teams are starting to form.
In the PREM we’re seeing a top 4 emerge and they’re threatening to break away, whilst the next few teams are racing to keep up. Meanwhile in the URC, the top 6 teams look in a great position to hold onto their places in the top 8 and make the knockouts. Then, like every year, that battle for 7th and 8th is hotly contested by 6/7 clubs, and will almost certainly come down to the last couple weeks of the season.
This is an odd time of year though. Six Nations squads have been announced and slowly everyone’s attention is moving towards rugby’s biggest annual showpiece. The clubs are coming off a crucial period in the calendar, with festive derbies followed by European fixtures. It’s easy for the emotional drivers to dip for teams in these next couple weeks, but bagging some strong results here can change the picture for teams when they come back in March.
But before we start focusing on the international game, let’s preview a couple of the games and the lines that we like from them this weekend.
Exeter Chiefs v Bristol Bears – Saturday 24th 15:00 GMT – Sandy Park, Exeter
Our pick: Bristol +9.5
This is a clash between two of the form teams in English rugby. Both have been really impressive this season and have made big strides from a year ago. Obviously it’s the PREM, and so the rule of thumb in these types of games is that the home team should probably win. On the whole though, Bristol are a pretty good road side, winning 4 of their 6 away games this season.
Exeter would be my pick to win this, however I envision a close game. It’s a Southwest derby after all, and neither side will want to give an inch as they race for the top 4. Exeter may take the spoils, but with 9.5 points to play with, I’m backing Bristol to cover.
Edinburgh v Bulls – Friday 23rd 19:45 GMT – Hive Stadium, Edinburgh
Our Pick: Edinburgh to win
So last week I said Edinburgh would cover +28.5 against Bath. The lost by 53. Not my finest take. So how am I responding? Running it back with the Scotsmen, of course. I get that this might seem dumb. And yes, if I’m wrong about this then I will not be betting on Edinburgh again this season. But they are a home underdog and this week they are going full strength with their selection. They’ve had some good results at home this season and I’m still not fully sold on the Bulls. Last week they were excellent, winning away at Pau, but backing that up is hard. The line is Edinburgh +1.5 or evens odds for them to win the match. Hopefully I don’t get burnt twice, I’m taking Edinburgh to win this one at home.
Scarlets v Ulster – Saturday 24th 15:00 GMT – Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Our Pick: Scarlets +7.5
Last week I said bet on the Scarlets against Northampton because Sam Costellow is back and they’re undervalued. It turned out to be exactly the case. The Scarlets are just so much better when they have a proper outside half steering the ship, and Costellow is an excellent player. As it happens, the Scarlets look undervalued again this week, despite the quality of their performance last Sunday. They certainly lack power in the front five, particularly when they have no healthy 2nd rows, but their backline is genuinely class when they’re fit and firing. They may not be great over the course of a season, but right now I like this Scarlets team a lot more than the bookies.
Granted, they face a strong Ulster team, whose resurgence has been one of the stories of the first half of this URC season. However the Scarlets face them at home and that counts for a lot. I’d be tempted to bet on the Scarlets to win outright here (12/5), but I certainly like them +7.5.
Sale Sharks v Northampton Saints – Saturday 24th 17:30 GMT – CorpAcq Stadium
Our Pick: Northampton +4.5
I’ve been going to and fro on who I think will win this one. On the one hand, Sale really need to win this game. Like really need it. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that loss on Saturday would sink the Sharks season. They are currently 14 points off the top 4 and if they’re going to bridge that gap, they absolutely cannot afford to drop points at home. Away wins are too hard to come by to let games slip away when you have home advantage. Sale will be so up for this, and having rested the majority of their frontline starters, they’ll be ready to go.
On the other hand, Northampton have just been a better team than Sale this season. I thought that Northampton were pretty poor last weekend against the Scarlets. For much of that game they were inaccurate and outplayed by their Welsh visitors. However that can be a good thing sometimes because it means the coaches can rip into them and coach hard in the week. Sometimes those kinds of performances can create a bounce back the week after.
So what will it be? Who will be the most up for it this week? And if Northampton are up for it, will they just have too much quality for this Sale side?
I’m torn, and so what I like to do in this situation is take advantage of the odds. If I think it’s a 50/50, then getting 4.5 points on the Saints feels generous. I’d exercise caution on this one, but I like Northampton to cover the +4.5.