So the big banks, asset managers and brokers will employ researchers and analysts to work out and publish whether they believe a stock deserves a buy, sell or hold recommendation. So why don’t we do the same for rugby teams? Teams may not have share prices to easily quantify their value but we can observe the general opinion of where the media, public and bookies value teams. So which teams are undervalued and deserve a BUY recommendation, which are overvalued and deserve a SELL, and which are appropriately valued, earning a HOLD.
With all our focus right now on the Autumn Internationals, we will go through the teams in order of their world rugby rankings. At the end of the Nations Series we will circle back and see where we were right, and where we were wrong.
South Africa – HOLD
Widely viewed as the best team in the world, their stock is at an all time high. There are some doubts potentially creeping in with this team however. After winning two World Cups with mostly the same group of players, Rassie and his fellow coaches are starting to blood some newer, younger players as they prepare for the World Cup in 2 years time. This means inevitably leaving out some of the experienced, trusted older statesmen that have been mainstays in this Bok side, in favour of talented but less established players. Whilst the quality coming through in South Africa is undeniable, playing these younger guys inevitably comes with growing pains. They have the ability to be brilliant, as the All Blacks found out in their recent Rugby Championship showdown in Wellington. However this type of selection can also come with some inconsistencies. The Boks aren’t the unbeatable force their trophy cabinet may suggest, but they still are the top dogs and they know how to win.
Comparison: Nvidia – Nvidia have been the recent darling of the global stock market, climbing to a $5 trillion market cap, the biggest company in the world. Similar then to the Springboks who have ascended to the top of world rugby. Like Nvidia with its dominant position in AI infrastructure, South Africa’s conveyor belt of elite talent means you’d bet on this team continuing to be at the top for many years to come.
New Zealand – BUY
I think sometimes people just forget that the All Blacks are the All Blacks. Sure, they may not be invincible anymore, but they’re still incredibly good. There’s talk that they don’t have the big, bad pack of years gone by, without the likes of Whitelock and Retalick in the second row. This team still has the ability though to be incredibly physical. Their backline is still stocked full of elite level talent and they still possess the classic Kiwi ability to counter attack and move the ball as well as anyone. The point is, underestimate the All Blacks at your own peril. They surprised a lot of people at the last World Cup, when they’d been largely written off as the 4th best side, just to go make the final. New Zealand are great at rugby, so if their stock ever dips, buy it!
Comparison: Berkshire Hathaway – Warren Buffett is the most successful investor of all time, just like the All Blacks are rugby’s greatest nation. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway may not be as flashy as the big tech names right now but you would never want to bet against it.
Ireland – SELL
There’s an element that when everyone else is selling, it can often be a pretty good time to buy, especially if you listen to Warren Buffett’s mantras. Leinster have started the season poorly, which is causing concerns that it could translate to the Irish national side. You could argue the writing has been on the wall with the age profile of this squad and the gradual decline in performances and results since the 2023 World Cup. Having reached the dizzying heights of number 1 in the world rankings, the expectations around Ireland have been raised to very high levels. They are now expected to be beating the top teams but we often forget, Ireland are one of the smaller playing populations of tier 1 nations and they have the inconvenience of competing for talent with GAA and hurling. I do feel Ireland are coming to the end of a golden generation where they not just had a great crop of players, but also an exceptional setup, pathways and coaching groups. They’ve been innovators and world leaders off the field, which has paid huge dividends on it. Now though, many have caught up, and the cracks are starting to show.
They are still a good side and have lots of talent and strong systems. If the media really start turning against them, it could become ‘buy the dip’ time. But I fear their stock is heading in the wrong direction at a time when their rivals are ascending. For that reason, I’m selling.
Comparison: Diageo – the global alcoholic beverage conglomerate has, like Ireland, been on a strong upward trajectory for a number of years, growing into one of the biggest drinks companies in the world. However their stock hit a peak a couple years ago and has been on a gradual decline. They still have some great brands in their portfolio, not least a famous Dublin based brewery, that can help them holt their slide and to get back to the top once more.
France – BUY
Currently sitting 5th in World Rugby’s rankings is possibly the strongest side in the world. France are the reigning 6 Nations champions, a tournament they won in style, so they’re not exactly slipping under the radar. They are viewed by most as the best team in Europe but perhaps people underestimate just how big the gap between them and 2nd is. What’s more, they are absolutely a match for the top ranked Boks. This team may be without Dupont until the new year, but they are still a top 2 side, and they might not be 2. I’m buying France stock, I think this month they will maintain their perfect winning record in Autumn Internationals going back 5 years and they have a great chance for a Grand Slam in March, with England and Ireland both at home.
Comparison: Amazon – great company that are right at the top of their game. Not always talked about as much as the other Mag 7 companies, but as strong as any and look to still have more growth in them.
England – SELL
So this sell recommendation is all about price, I’m selling high. England have won 8 in a row and vibes are very good around this team. The media, which can naturally be quite PREM and England focused, have hyped this team considerably and expectations are for them to be one of the top sides in the world very soon. Whilst their recent performances and the talent level means they could well prove to be an elite team, it does feel as though the general perception around this team is also the best case scenario for them. It’s like if a stock has a best case scenario of its price going to $100 per share, and it’s currently trading at $97. The upside seems limited, it’s almost impossible for England to exceed expectations right now.
On the downside however, my concern is that whilst they’ve looked impressive against weaker teams, the best teams they’ve played this year did outplay them. It was only French dropped passes and Scottish missed kicks that granted victories in the 6 Nations to England. Since then they’ve only played against sides ranked outside the top 6 in the Gameline Power Rankings.
I’m not out on England but I think they have a lot to prove before we confirm them back at the top table. The game against the All Blacks will be like this team’s earnings report. Let’s see if they can meet expectations.
Comparison: Tesla – by many metrics Tesla, like this England team, is overpriced (they have a price to earnings ratio 10 times worse than the Nasdaq average). They may not have the results to backup their sky high valuation yet, but the focus is on future potential. England are anticipated to become a top tier side soon and much of that hope is already priced in.
Scotland – HOLD
I was tempted to slap a buy recommendation on this Scotland side. The reason being that I think 2026 could give us the best Scotland team this century. The vast majority of their Lions tourists really excelled this summer. When put next to the best of the best in Britain and Ireland, the Scottish players stood up and showed they were not just good enough to be there, but some of the best players on that tour. We all know about the quality of Finn Russell, who’s cemented himself as truly world class this year. But the likes of Scott Cummins and Ben White really impressed. Lions tours can often make or break players. That step up in level can expose weaknesses or highlight a player’s underlying class. With so many Scottish players coming out in credit, I think they take that experience and use it to propel this team forward.
Although I do have two concerns. Firstly, the loss of Steve Tandy as their defence coach. We can talk about their star-studded backline all we want, but Scotland have had a tough, rugged defence that has allowed them to compete with the best over the past few seasons. Can they keep that going without their defensive leader? The second concern is whether they can improve enough to actually reach that next level. The next step for this team is to win some silverware, whether that’s the 6 Nations title itself or a Triple Crown. Whilst I think they’ll be better, I don’t see them toppling France or winning in Dublin come March. For those reasons, it’s just a hold for now.
Comparison: Snap – the Snapchat parent company has seen consistent revenue growth year-on-year. Unfortunately though, it’s never had a year where it has recorded a profit. This may be a touch harsh but it does feel a bit like this Scotland team, who have won over plenty of fans, shown good growth but ultimately been unable to translate that into silverware.
Argentina – BUY
Having beaten the All Blacks, Wallabies and Lions this year, after beating the Springboks the year before, Argentina have shown they have the ability to top anyone. However they haven’t shown an ability to perform consistently. In between victories over the Lions and All Blacks they had two poor home losses to England and even in the Rugby Championship their performances were pretty up and down. They have so many exciting players, particularly in the backrow and the backline. They still get viewed though as being a tier below the top teams. This is partly because as soon as they make you think they deserve to be ranked higher, they go and remind you a week later why they aren’t viewed as a top 5 side. Argentina are like a volatile stock, one day they’re great and they make you rich, the next you’ve lost half your money. I’d rather be good but volatile than consistent but a bit uninspiring. I’ll give them a buy rating because they’re the sort of side that can win a Twickenham against all odds. But they could also lose in Rome the next week so buyers beware, they’re risky.
Comparison: Rolls-Royce – the British aerospace and defence company has been on a heater the last few years with its stock soaring. Given the nature of their industry, Rolls-Royce’s performance is very dependent on a small number of big contracts. Similar to Argentina then, who have been defined by a few standout victories in the last couple years.
Wales – BUY
Welsh stock is at all-time lows, hitting levels not seen since the 90s. However it’s still Wales, it’s still the nation of Gareth Edwards, Jonathan Davies and Shane Williams. They may not have the depth, and their players may not be as established, but there is still plenty of talent in Wales. With new leadership in Steve Tandy, Matt Sherratt and Danny Wilson, Wales will look to reverse their fortunes and get back to the top table, competing with the big boys and looking for titles. Whatever you think about what’s going on at the WRU, this team won’t stay down for long. I feel very positive right now about the new coaching group, rebuilding that toughness, resilience and ironclad defence that underpinned so many of Wales’s recent 6 Nations triumphs. This season I predict them to get back to winning ways, winning a couple games in the Autumn and a few more in the 6 Nations. Buy Welsh stock whilst it’s still cheap.
Comparison: Aston Martin Lagonda – Both Wales and Aston Martin are famous, historic names of rugby and motorsport respectively, and both have gone through incredibly challenging times of late. Both have had recent changes to their leadership with the hope of returning their brands to former glory. Let’s see if they can succeed.
Italy – BUY
For a number of years now Italy have had a young exciting squad. In the 2024 6 Nations we thought we were seeing the start of this young team maturing into a side that could really compete with the top teams, winning 2 games and drawing another with France. In all honesty they really weren’t that far away from winning 4 games and coming 2nd in the tournament. However last year was a step back. A humbling 73 points conceded to France and a general failure to kick on and take any further scalps, and suddenly we seem to be back where we were before with Italy.
I don’t think we should be too quick to rule this team out. They have their flaws but they also have an exceptional centre pairing and some game breakers in the back three. They need to be more consistently dogged up front but I still believe this is a side that can cause an upset. It will be a bumpy ride but I’d buy into this Italy team now with the hope a big victory against a top team could well be on the horizon.
Comparison: Moncler – this Milan headquartered luxury fashion brand may not be in the same tier as the big houses like LVMH or Hermes in terms of market cap and revenue. However they an exciting mid-tier fashion brand looking to grow and compete with their top-tier established rivals.
Fiji – HOLD
We all love Fiji. The way they play the game is just so joyful. They’ve made massive improvements since the Fijian Drua joined Super Rugby and the core of that side gives them that consistency. They have some stars like Tuisova and Vainiquolo, who can open up defences and no end of physicality across the side. They’re adding more and more structure and discipline to the way they play as this team is growing together. Although over the last few years they’ve made big statements, winning in Twickenham and Cardiff, and beating Australia to make a World Cup Quarter Final. The rugby world has taken notice and no one is underestimating Fiji anymore. The challenge they now have is to make the next jump. To start winning more consistently rather than just the odd big win. That is what is hard, they’ve raised expectations but there is still a big jump up to the next stage in their progression. For now they are just getting a hold recommendation, until they can prove these victories against top sides are more than just one-offs.
Comparison: Peloton – Peloton had huge growth a few years ago, disrupting the exercise industry, however they’ve now hit a bit of a plateau. Making that next jump and finding away to keep growing is proving difficult.